x? seconds off the pace prediction

[captainhappy]

Hello All,

How many seconds off the pace do you expect the new teams to be in Bahrain? With a lap currently about 1:35:00 in race conditions, I predict the slowest will be USF1, qualifying at least 6 seconds off of pole.

Any guesses?

[shinji]

Campos will be 2 months behind the rest of the field.

[Klon]

Campos will be 2 months behind the rest of the field.

So, you say they'll be 54568 laps behind the last classified finisher? In a 58 laps race? Hmm ... that can only mean that HWNSNBM will drive with Campos, whom he wants to fail and therefore inverse time to achive this.

€: Of course I know what you mean...

[danardif1]

My guesses are (based only on prep time and what we've 'seen' so far in terms of activity)

Lotus (aka Fondmetal Team Malaysia) - +3 to 4 seconds

USF1 - +4 to 5 seconds

Campos Meta - +2.5 to 4 seconds

Virgin Racing - +3 to 4 seconds

I think they'll as close to each other as the rest of the pack are up front... they'll have a lot of catching up to do, but with transfer of staff etc. I think the most major issues will be keeping up with development, and learning how to run their cars in the best way (it's not just new for designers at say USF1, but also their mechanics..)

Drivers will make a difference too... even if the USF1 car is as good as FTM's, I don't see Pechito Lopez or James Rossiter doing a better quali lap than Jarno Trulli, or even Bruno Senna in the Campos...

[CarlosFerreira]

My guesses are (based only on prep time and what we've 'seen' so far in terms of activity)

Lotus (aka Fondmetal Team Malaysia) - +3 to 4 seconds

USF1 - +4 to 5 seconds

Campos Meta - +2.5 to 4 seconds

Virgin Racing - +3 to 4 seconds

I think they'll as close to each other as the rest of the pack are up front... they'll have a lot of catching up to do, but with transfer of staff etc. I think the most major issues will be keeping up with development, and learning how to run their cars in the best way (it's not just new for designers at say USF1, but also their mechanics..)

Drivers will make a difference too... even if the USF1 car is as good as FTM's, I don't see Pechito Lopez or James Rossiter doing a better quali lap than Jarno Trulli, or even Bruno Senna in the Campos...

I'm going with 2.5 to 4 seconds for Lotus and Virgin. Up to 6 seconds for USF1. And Campos in a different time zone (literally, the Spanish time zone).

[DemocalypseNow]

Lotus - 2 seconds
Virgin - 4 seconds
USF1 - 10 seconds
Campos - 12 seconds.

Yup. We're looking at DNQs on pace alone for the first time in years I think...

[watka]

I've done a bit of research of team's first races :

Super Aguri (the last new team to enter):
Sato - 105.4% of Q1 fastest time, Ide - 108.5% of Q1 fastest time

Toyota:
Salo - 104.0% of pole time, McNish - 104.4% of pole time

Lola:
Sospiri - 113.0% of pole time, Rosset - 114.2% of pole time

Stewart:
Barrichello - 104.1% of pole time, Magnussen - 105.9% of pole time

Forti:
Moreno - 107.7% of pole time, Diniz - 109.6% of pole time

Pacific:
Gachot - 106.3%, Belmondo - no time

Simtek:
Brabham - 106.9% of pole time, Ratzeberger - 108.9% of pole time


Field spread in 2009 Australian GP Q1 - 102.0%

As time went on, new teams seemed to be closer to the front (and argubly had better drivers to aid them with this). Considering the 2009 stats, and the strength of the drivers for the new teams so far, I wouldn't expect anyone to be outside 105%, except USF1 on a bad day (if any because their driver line-up will probably be the worst on the grid). Around Bahrain 1% would equal about 0.9 seconds I think. Lotus and Virgin should be aiming for the 102.5-103% bracket.

[thehemogoblin]

USF1 will be pi seconds behind... because they'll just be spinning in circles!

[deCrasheris]

Lotus 2.5 seconds off the pace
Virgin Timo Glock 2.8 off and luca di Grassi 3.8 secs off
Campos 5 seconds off
USF1 12 seconds off and will not be allowed to start the race

[dr-baker]

I reckon whatever the gap from 1st to 18th is, will equal the gap either from 18th to 19th or 18th to last.

[Tealy]

I actually think they won't be too far off the back of the grid.

Lotus and Virgin I reckon about 2 secs off the pace which would put them amongst the Torro Rosso's by this years standards.

Campos, assuming they get the funding and development doesn't stop, about 2.5 to 3 secs off the pace.

USF1, assuming they make it at all, about 3 or 3.5 seconds off the pace.

I don't see Lola style levels of failure from these teams. The recession pretty much put a stop to anyone just entering for fun and I do think these teams are serious in nature. However we are seeing a lot of reports talking about USF1 struggling and there is no smoke without fire ....

[Phoenix]

An estimated prediction of ALL teams:
1 and 2-Ferrari or McLaren (marginal differences of 0.1 to 0.3 secs)
3-Mercedes (0.2 to 0.4 secs)
4-Red Bull (0.3 to 0.5 secs)
5-Williams (0.7 to 0.9 secs)
6-Sauber (0.9 to 1.1 secs)
7-Force India (1 to 1.2 secs)
8-Renault (1.1 to 1.3 secs)
9-Toro Rosso (1.4 to 1.6 secs)
10-Lotus (1.7 to 1.9 secs)
11-Campos (1.8 to 2.1 secs)
12-Virgin (1.9 to 2.3 secs)
13-USF1 (3 to 4.2 secs)

[Collieafc]

we are seeing a lot of reports talking about USF1 struggling and there is no smoke without fire ....

Could be a smoke grenade

I think Team Malaysia will be around a second off. I wont be surprised if Trulli gets into Q2 though

Virgin: Depends on how the lack of wind tunnel plays. If it makes no difference, they wont be far behind Team Malaysia (behind, purely as their drivers have less experiance)

Campos: 2-3 Seconds, depending on how their funding issues go. Could be more...

USF1: Seeing their performance will make the FIA bring back the 107% rule, post haste

[bduddy]

we are seeing a lot of reports talking about USF1 struggling and there is no smoke without fire ....

Could be a smoke grenade

I think Team Malaysia will be around a second off. I wont be surprised if Trulli gets into Q2 though

Virgin: Depends on how the lack of wind tunnel plays. If it makes no difference, they wont be far behind Team Malaysia (behind, purely as their drivers have less experiance)

Campos: 2-3 Seconds, depending on how their funding issues go. Could be more...

USF1: Seeing their performance will make the FIA bring back the 107% rule, post haste

I find your mention of Q2 interesting. Next year, presuming everyone makes it, 8 cars will be removed after Q1 (and Q2). Will any returning teams be among them? Somehow I think so, one way or another....

[mario]

I admit that I will be very amused if one of the new teams manages to beat one of the established teams at Bahrain and makes a mockery of prevailing opinion in the paddock at the moment (even if it is unlikely to happen).
Looking at watka's post, my gut feeling is that he could well be closer to the mark with his estimates then most, so I would not be surprised if most of the new teams are, at the very least, within 2 seconds of the current teams, with perhaps Virgin Racing and Lotus-1 Malaysia being the teams which are a bit closer (since they have a more experienced driver line up, which should help with set up and development work).

There is another point to consider though - remember that testing is being cut back this year for all the teams, so there will be less time for the teams to pick up on all the nuances of the car. So, for the first race, even the established teams are unlikely to be obtaining the optimal set up - especially with the compromise between the best qualifying set up (on low fuel) and race set up with full tanks. Therefore, there will be the chance for the new teams to minimise the advantage of the established teams at Bahrain.

A more pertinent question to ask, though, is what the gap will by the time we are up to Barcelona and the European GP.
Traditionally, that is when the teams tend to introduce a large upgrae package, with the aim of gaining 0.2-0.3s, or perhaps more. However, even allowing for that, most teams bring a few small upgrades on a race by race basis as well. Updating the car throughout the season - even if to just stay where it is - is a very expensive game, and with a 19 race calendar this year, I doubt that the smaller teams will be able to keep up. Therefore, my reasoning is that even if the new teams are fairly close to the established teams in Bahrain, they may find closing the gap down to them is no easy task - if anything, it may increase over the season.

[watka]

A more pertinent question to ask, though, is what the gap will by the time we are up to Barcelona and the European GP.
Traditionally, that is when the teams tend to introduce a large upgrae package, with the aim of gaining 0.2-0.3s, or perhaps more. However, even allowing for that, most teams bring a few small upgrades on a race by race basis as well. Updating the car throughout the season - even if to just stay where it is - is a very expensive game, and with a 19 race calendar this year, I doubt that the smaller teams will be able to keep up. Therefore, my reasoning is that even if the new teams are fairly close to the established teams in Bahrain, they may find closing the gap down to them is no easy task - if anything, it may increase over the season.

I think that is a good point there Mario. Just look at Toro Rosso last year. They are usually quite respectable at the start of the season (Q2 quality), but then really drop off until they got their 1 big upgrade package near the end of the European season. Hell, even Brawn struggled to keep up with the pace of development. The teams at least look to have the right staff to develop their cars (Lotus - Gascoigne, Virgin - Wirth, Campos - Dallara, USF1 - ermmmmm...), if not the finances.

[Phoenix]

Summing up, the new teams will seize the back of the grid by the end of the season. Perhaps not surprising, but some of them may improve in a future.

[midgrid]

Bump!

Today is the first time that one of the new teams has done some (vaguely) representative running against the established outfits. Timo Glock has completed 11 laps for Virgin at Valencia with a best time of 1:29.938, almost ten seconds off the current pace and more than six seconds behind the next-slowest runner. Perhaps more worryingly, the VR-01 suffered a front wing failure which has brought the day's running to an end, due to a lack of spare parts. Still, at least they have time to get up to speed before the first race.

[P_Friesacher]

Well, that was only the 15th lap the car has ever done under serious testing conditions, so I imagine they might find a few extra seconds once they find the necessary spare sparts. That the front wing just fell off (and the gereral lack of testing resulting from this) is a bit worrying, though.

[madcat]

How long before they re-introduce a 105% qualifying rule?

[midgrid]

How long before they re-introduce a 105% qualifying rule?

I doubt that will happen, as it would be extremely embarrassing for the FIA to introduce a rule that excludes its hand-picked new teams from the races. It would also be unfair due to the split-session qualifying system, as this year the fastest laps in Q3 will be quicker than the equivalent times set in Q1.

[DonTirri]

How long before they re-introduce a 105% qualifying rule?

107%

[CarlosFerreira]

How long before they re-introduce a 105% qualifying rule?

As soon as the USF1 cars turns a wheel.

[Yannick]

The lack of spares of Playboy Mansion Virgin Manor Grand Prix looks like to be a due that they pay because of an early launch date. They beat Lotus Fondmetal Team Malaysia in that category, but overall, the team around Tony Fernandez and Mike Gascoigne appears better organized than the Bransonites of Manor. Yet, the new Fondmetal will still need to measure itself with the rest of the teams' new cars.

If there is one amongst the new teams to be able to actually beat established outfits in the early stage of the season, it can only be Stefan Grand Prix - and only if they use the package Toyota created for them.
I'd like to see the Toyota TF-110 racing in F1 much more than the USF1 Idol.

[Phoenix]

Bump!

Today is the first time that one of the new teams has done some (vaguely) representative running against the established outfits. Timo Glock has completed 11 laps for Virgin at Valencia with a best time of 1:29.938, almost ten seconds off the current pace and more than six seconds behind the next-slowest runner. Perhaps more worryingly, the VR-01 suffered a front wing failure which has brought the day's running to an end, due to a lack of spare parts. Still, at least they have time to get up to speed before the first race.

Considering the actual pace, even if they gain some seconds, come Bahrein they'll be absolutely rooted to the back rows of the grid. And that front wing failure...the eerie ring Ratzenberg-front wing failure-Simtek (now Virgin, virtually) comes to my mind. Let's hope they improve the durability and strenght of the pieces.

[CarlosFerreira]

And that front wing failure...the eerie ring Ratzenberg-front wing failure-Simtek (now Virgin, virtually) comes to my mind. Let's hope they improve the durability and strenght of the pieces.

Dude, my heart simply stopped when I read that. I believe so did Nick Wirth's when he realised what happened.

[Jack O Malley]

And that front wing failure...the eerie ring Ratzenberg-front wing failure-Simtek (now Virgin, virtually) comes to my mind. Let's hope they improve the durability and strenght of the pieces.

Dude, my heart simply stopped when I read that. I believe so did Nick Wirth's when he realised what happened.

I thought about that at the same moment I read that Glock's wing failed. Let's hope that the new teams will be more safe than the new teams of mid 90s

[Valrys]

I reckon they'll all be closer than Lola were all those years ago, but I don't think we can pin it down any closer than that untill everyone rocks up in Bahrain - we don't know what programs everyone is running in testing.

[mario]

Bump!

Today is the first time that one of the new teams has done some (vaguely) representative running against the established outfits. Timo Glock has completed 11 laps for Virgin at Valencia with a best time of 1:29.938, almost ten seconds off the current pace and more than six seconds behind the next-slowest runner. Perhaps more worryingly, the VR-01 suffered a front wing failure which has brought the day's running to an end, due to a lack of spare parts. Still, at least they have time to get up to speed before the first race.

To be fair to Glock, the track was still slightly damp, and the other teams had not been on the track for that long when he set that time. If you look at the times which the other drivers were setting whilst he was on track, the gap to the front was probably about half what it was by the end of the session (the times were in the high 1m 23's at the time, and the other teams have had much more time on track comapred to the Virgin team). If Virgin Racing manage to rack up a decent amount of laps (say, around 60 laps), and have a mixture of longer and shorter runs, then perhaps we can start judging the pace of the VR-01 more accurately.
As for the parts, it's not unheard of for spare parts to be arriving throughout the practise sessions, or even later during the weekend. At one race, for example, Toyota used the front wings from the previous race in FP1 and 2, only to update the front wings for the final practise session. However, lacking a spare front wing, when that is the most likely part to be damaged (e.g. if one of the drivers collides with another driver), seems a little sloppy.
Still, hopefully the modifications to the front wing should prevent this from happening again (although it's not the first time a front wing has fallen off - remember Trulli had a similar thing happen to him at Jerez last year?)

[Cynon]

Campos Meta- 20 minutes off USF1's pace. Will DNQ.
USF1- 6 seconds off the pace
Virgin- 5 seconds off the pace
Lotus- 4 seconds off the pace

[Valrys]

Campos Meta- 20 minutes off USF1's pace. Will DNQ.

This got me thinking - in todays day and age, without pre-qualifying, just exactly how slow/erratic would you have to actually BE to obtain a big, fat DNQ?

[thehemogoblin]

Al Pease slow.

[Waris]

In recent years, there were so few cars that imposing a 107% rule would be pointless, because it could mean there would be only 18 or 19 cars starting. (Well, in practice this didn't held up because the field has gotten so close in 2009, but theoretically, you see my point.) Now with 26 cars, this might well change, and if some of the new teams are really slow... I reckon they should give them at least one year to acclimatize, and if they're still way off the pace then, they could very well bring that 107% rule back.
Meanwhile, Virgin's progress looks promising. The gap on the second day of testing was already some 4 seconds smaller than on the first, so by the time she gets "deflowered" (ha! ha!) in Bahrain, she might well be able to run close to whoever the weakest of the existing teams is. (By the way, I don't really think there is a "weakest" team anymore. I would have predicted it would be Toro Rosso, but now that even they have shown they can mix it, I suppose the order will change from track to track.)

[madcat]

How long before they re-introduce a 105% qualifying rule?

107%

Maybe, but I believe in tighter rules....

[midgrid]

Lotus seem respectable in their first group test - hopefully, we will have some fully dry running this weekend so that Lotus and Virgin can be easily compared.