So who is the mystery driver then? Someone with both 500K to waste on a one-off in the worst car in the field, and is also currently holding or eligible for a Superlicense. There are lots of ones or the others, but how about those who check both boxes?
Appendix L to the FIA International Sporting code wrote:5.1.2 The driver must also satisfy at least one of the following requirements:
a) have made at least 5 starts in races counting for the FIA Formula One World Championship for Drivers the previous year, or at least 15 starts within the previous 3 years.
b) have previously held the Super Licence and have been the regular test driver with an F1 World Championship team for the previous year.
c) have been classified, within the previous 2 years, in the first 3 of the final classification of: the F2 Championship, or the International F3 Trophy, or the GP2 Series, or the GP2 Asia Series or the Japanese F/Nippon Championship,
d) have been classified in the first 4 of the final classification of the Indycar IRL series within the previous 2 years,
e) be the current champion of one of the following:
- Formula 3 Euro Series
- The principal national F3 championships of: Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Spain
- World Series F/Renault V6
N.B.: the title of Champion is considered valid for 12 months from the last race of the relevant series or championship season.
f) be judged by the FIA to have consistently demonstrated outstanding ability in single-seater formula cars, but with noopportunity to qualify under any of c) to e) above. In this case the F1 team concerned must show that the applicant has driven at least 300 km in a current Formula One car consistently at racing speeds, over a maximum period of 2 days, completed not more than 90 days prior to the application and certified by the ASN of the country in which the test took place.
It seems sensible to rule out point F), as Caterham have neither the means nor time to get a pay-driver who doesn't qualify under sections A-E the required running before the Abu Dhabi weekend the required running. It's impossible. So such names as Rio Haryanto, Sergio Canamasas, Kimiya Sato, et al, the kind of driver that would only ever make it to F1 at a backmarker team desperate for any money, are all out.
Here is an attempt at a fully comprehensive list of drivers Caterham would be eligible to employ under the license rules, that excludes both Section F of Appendix L, aside from those who already qualified under this rule earlier in the year, and also drivers who are currently gainfully employed at other F1 teams in race driver positions.
Section AMark Webber
Michael Schumacher
Nick Heidfeld -
Close, but no cigar. Only has 11 races in the past 3 years, not the required 15!Bruno Senna
Rubens Barrichello
Paul di Resta
Kamui Kobayashi
Sébastien Buemi
Jaime Alguersuari
Heikki Kovalainen
Jarno Trulli
Vitantonio Liuzzi
Timo Glock
Jerome D'Ambrosio
Narain Karthikeyan
Pedro de la Rosa
Charles Pic
Giedo van der Garde
Max Chilton
Section BOnly repeats from Section A, not applicable
Section CDavide Valsecchi
Luiz Razia
Fabio Leimer
Sam Bird
James Calado
Naoki Yamamoto
André Lotterer
Loïc Duval
Kazuki Nakajima
Koudai Tsukakoshi
Takuya Izawa
Section DScott Dixon
Hélio Castroneves
Simon Pagenaud
Will Power
Juan Pablo Montoya
Section ECarlos Sainz, Jr.
Esteban Ocon
Martin Cao
Nobuharu Matsushita
Sandy Stuvik
Section FRoberto Mehri
Robin Frijns
Alexander Rossi
Daniel Juncadella
Max Verstappen
Felipe Nasr
Sergey Sirotkin
Susie Wolff? -
Not sure if she actually did enough KMs in FP to hit the 300 markJulian Leal
Will Stevens
Stoffel Vandoorne
Take note that according to the regulations,
Joylon Palmer is currently ineligible for a superlicense except for through Section F! He isn't the current GP2 champion for official purposes - Fabio Leimer is. So I wonder then, which of these blokes might end up at the wheel of the Caterham next weekend?
Coughing up 500K to race a backmarker car eliminates quite a lot of these drivers. Many others have commitments elsewhere on the Abu Dhabi weekend. Although, one might imagine that with Sauber passing on him for a drive next season, van der Garde might revert back to Caterham for one last race. With Marussia down the toilet, might Chilton make the switch as well?
Section C - how many of these drivers have the financial clout to walk into the Caterham drive? Razia has been on the brink of making it to F1 before, only for his money to mysteriously vanish just before the start of the year. His abortive efforts in the past make him somewhat unlikely. It's also extremely unlikely anyone from Section D would bother with the Caterham scenario - they are top drivers in the States, with nothing to gain from jumping into the sinking Caterham ship.
Section D is a little more interesting. Ocon is likely out, already being aligned with the Lotus team. Sainz Jr is also unlikely given his Red Bull ties and being passed up for the Toro Rosso drive. Cao's Fortec looked very plain this season, which brings into question whether he'd have the 500K to stump up. Sandy Stuvik is a bit of an obscure choice, but at least seems to have plenty of sponsors on board. A massive long shot, but might have the money to attempt such a move.
Someone from Section F seems the most likely. Especially Mehri, given he got his Superlicense by driving the Caterham this year. Given the team has changed hands since Rossi left Caterham, perhaps he has made a return, to finally make his F1 debut? Robin Frijns seems unlikely, as finding the money to make the jump to F1 had always been his biggest problem. It could theoretically be possible that Red Bull made the payment, to give Max Verstappen a run out before his STR racing debut. Nasr is effectively out, given he has already penned a deal with Sauber for next season.
My best guess from all of this is Caterham will field some combination of Kamui Kobayashi, Roberto Mehri and Giedo van der Garde. Joylon Palmer being allowed to race will require some special dispensation from the FIA, seeing as he isn't actually GP2 Champion yet. As funny as it would be to see Rubens in a Caterham, I remember at the end of his Williams contract saying he would not pay money to stay in F1.
