Aislabie wrote:Suddenly, everything seems to be a little bit up in the air when it comes to the 2017 grid.
Mercedes - Lewis Hamilton & Nico Rosberg
Red Bull - Daniel Ricciardo & Max Verstappen
Ferrari - Kimi Raikkonen & Sebastian Vettel
McLaren Honda - Fernando Alonso & Stoffel Vandoorne
Force India - Sergio Perez & VACANT
The most likely option would be for one of the Manor drivers to step up here, but it sounds as if Force India might need a pay driver, so could this open the door for a Nasr, Gutierrez or (small voice) Haryanto?
Williams - VACANT & VACANT
With Valtteri Bottas' future with the team currently in doubt, I'd imagine Williams will want an experienced driver to partner Stroll. Someone like a Grosjean, Kvyat or Magnussen, assuming they can't keep Bottas. Alternatively, you gamble on a pair of rookies and go with Stroll & Giovinazzi.
Toro Rosso - Carlos Sainz & VACANT
It's hard to argue that Daniil Kvyat has a long term future with Red Bull, and we've seen how quickly such drivers tend to get discarded. Pierre Gasly is the natural successor, even if he's not been quite as stellar as one might hope. Or they could also go for Giovinazzi. Everyone should want GIovinazzi, surely?
Haas - VACANT & VACANT
They've been remarkably tight-lipped about who they're signing next year. You would assume they will want to keep Grosjean, as he's scored all their points, and Gutierrez seems to think he has a drive next year. Otherwise, who could they sign? I doubt Rossi will want to leave IndyCar. Maybe Magnussen or Palmer? Charles Leclerc could also be in the frame.
Renault - Nico Hulkenberg & VACANT
Renault seem to be aiming high with their driver line-up this year, having tried already to lure in Sainz & Perez, and now securing Hulkenberg. Apparently Bottas is next on their list; otherwise might they be tempted by a younger talent like Giovinazzi, Ocon, Sirotkin or Leclerc
Manor - VACANT & VACANT
I imagine they will want to keep Wehrlein and Ocon, but they'll be powerless to keep them if a bigger team comes calling. Not really sure who else would be in the frame - maybe Jordan King or Alex Lynn? Bring back Haryanto?
Sauber - VACANT & VACANT
Ericsson seems like a shoe-in with Longbow backing the team. Who would bring most money to partner him - Haryanto maybe, or Gutierrez, or Nasr yet again? And really, who would want to go to a mis-managed team with no prospects and year-old engines?
For Force India, my gut feeling is that Mercedes will probably push for a deal to put Wehrlein in the team, perhaps sweetening the deal by offering Force India a discount on their engines.
It would give Mercedes a better chance to evaluate his potential in a more competitive car and let him sharpen his skills racing in the midfield pack, whilst I expect that Force India would welcome a potentially quite competitive driver that could help them secure another solid WCC finish in 2017.
For Williams, most seem to think that a Bottas-Stroll line up is all but sealed for 2017, even if Bottas does seem to have kept his options open for a while. Over at Toro Rosso, I think that the most likely option is a Sainz Jr-Gasly line up - as you note, Kvyat seems broken in spirit and it looks like there is no way back to Red Bull now.
Renault is interesting - there were some rumours swirling around Ocon, but he must be split between wanting to take that seat and the possibility in the longer term of a potentially better seat at Mercedes in the future.
You make a good point that the team might fancy taking a chance on a younger driver now that they have a more experienced driver (Hulkenberg) who can potentially lead the team - I suspect they'd go for Ocon if they can get him. Alternatively, I wonder if they might fancy trying to lure Grosjean back?
Speaking of Grosjean, my initial feeling is that he will stay at Haas with Gutierrez - perhaps as much because both of those drivers probably won't be able to move elsewhere. Given the big rule change for 2017, Steiner might well want to maintain some stability at the team by keeping the same drivers for next year.
For Manor, if Mercedes are able to hold onto him, I suspect that Ocon will be placed there to continue his development - out of the other drivers you have listed, Jordan King might be a more appealing prospect.
You're right that Sauber doesn't sound like a particularly appealing prospect for next year - Ericsson is almost certainly a shoe in because of his links. Perhaps Leclerc might have a chance due to his links with Ferrari?
(Tony Jardine, 1988)
