Who will be the next NEW F1 world champion?

[FullMetalJack]

Ricciardo will smile the field to death if he gets a title-capable car. Never count him out.

Just imagine how big the man's smile would be if he did win the championship.

[dr-baker]

Ricciardo will smile the field to death if he gets a title-capable car. Never count him out.

Just imagine how big the man's smile would be if he did win the championship.

Would that grin fit inside a crash helmet?

[astyanax]

I'm putting my money on Bottas

[RonDenisDeletraz]

I would absolutely love to see Ricciardo win the title, but I get the feeling he will need to make the right career moves. Really deserves a competitive car

[golic_2004]

Maldonado...(in a para-lol Universe)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifTIuA8Dq58 this kind, definitely.

[LeytonHouse]

I’d say the most likely are:
- Danny Ric but only if Red Bull don’t leave the sport and get a decent engine
- Verstappen has time on his side and will probably be at the peak of his powers just as Hamilton and Vettel are on the decline
- Vandoorne seems very talented and could reap the rewards if McLaren Honda ever come good

Out of the others, Bottas and Grosjean (both of which are very fast) could find themselves in a Mercedes/Ferrari in the near future but I don’t particularly fancy their chances against Hamilton/Vettel.

[IceG]

What would we say now?

Rosberg - looks broken.

Hulkenberg - looks disillusioned.

Perez - looks parked.

Webber - looks like a WEC driver.

Grosjean - could just still do it.

Ricciardo, Kvyat, Verstappen - all need an engine.

What would we say now?

Rosberg - looks mended and promising.

Ricciardo, Verstappen - the one that gets the Ferrari drive could do it.

Vandoorne, Sainz - need time.

[andrew]

Vandoorne could do it, if he had an f1 car.

[WeirdKerr]

Haryanto! lolz

[AdrianBelmonte_]

Haryanto! lolz

Get ready for... The HaryantoHappiness

[Bobby Doorknobs]

Haryanto! lolz

Get ready for... The HaryantoHappiness

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7588

[IceG]

What would we say now?

Rosberg - looks like he might actually do it this year as Hamilton melts down.

Ricciardo, Verstappen - if 2017 is an "aero year" (per Sky) then either of these guys could do it given Red Bull's capability in that area and Mercedes' relative weakness when following other cars.

Vandoorne - can't see Mclaren in contention next year but possibly in 2018 by which time Alonso will be gone

[Rob Dylan]

I think we're hitting that point at which many of these champions and older drivers of the 2000s decade are going to retire.
- Massa has confirmed his retirement at the end of this year
- Button is retiring going on a sabbatical, mostly so that McLaren can cover their bases if Alonso decides to retire. He won't be around in 2017, and probably not 2018 either.
- Alonso is likely not going to stick around after 2017, especially if the McLaren only improves a little bit. He's probably going to want a top-3 car next year if he's looking at staying on.
- Raikkonen still drives among us, though I sometimes struggle to believe it. I would say he surely won't get a seat after 2017, but then again I said that after 2013, 2014, 2015, and now 2016, so what do I know.

Hamilton and Vettel are 31 and 29 years old respectively, so they each have another half-decade of performance in them.

But yeah, I can predict a surge of new champions soon, possibly starting with this year...

[EuroBrun]

Aside from Rosberg, one of the two RBRs guys will be the next. It is too easy to predict Newey will design another winning car based on his ability to read between the lines of the aero regulation, and both Ricciardo and Verstappen have very long term contracts with the team. Between the two I hope for Ricciardo.

[IceG]

Rosberg - looks like he might actually do it this year as Hamilton melts down.

So now we know - though Hamilton fought back brilliantly.

Will it be Verstappen or Ricciardo next?

[Dan B]

Despite my dislike for Red Bull in general I do hope it's Ricciardo. That being said I see "Golden Boy" written all over Max's face so I think that's who will get the lion's share of the support and Ricciardo will be Webber 2.0.

[Meatwad]

I think Verstappen is the most likely. If Red Bull has a great car, I think he could already do it next year. Ricciardo might also do it (he's more consistent) but Verstappen often seems to be in a class of his own.

[dr-baker]

I'm going to predict that the next son of a champion to win a title himself will be Mick Schumacher, but that he will have to wait until 2028 to win the title.

[TheFlyingCaterham]

Since next year's new regs are a lot more downforce-based, and Red Bull are known to be perfectly able to design cars with good downforce, I reckon next year's champion will either be Ricciardo or Verstappen.

[IceG]

Nearly a year since we discussed this so thought it might be fun to review where we are...

Verstappen really does look like prime contender, but he needs reliability

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team.

Ocon is a hungry beggar isn't he?

[Rob Dylan]

In my perfect world it's Ricciardo, but after Mexico, I can't help but feel it'll be Verstappen. But I'm not exactly complaining - in Mexico Verstappen really did well, and minus the reliability factor he'd be doing a lot better this year. He needs to brush up a little bit on his race-craft (not hitting people, I mean), and seriously, drop Jos, and he'll be good. He's still young, so I imagine a fight for the championship next year might be too much for him in terms of handling pressure. But as I said, he'd probably give himself a better chance by dropping Jos.

[dr-baker]

I reckon Bottas has a chance to be the next champion.

[IceG]

I reckon Bottas has a chance to be the next champion.

It requires skill, luck, the right car and, in Bottas' case, a change to the contract clause which states that he cannot beat Lewis...

[WeirdKerr]

Hulkenberg, managing to win the championship by finishing 4th in every race when we get 20 different winners and a lot of bad luck for everyone else(probably not even possible)

[1993DonningtonNo1Mk2]

Max Verstappen!

[FullMetalJack]

Hulkenberg, managing to win the championship by finishing 4th in every race when we get 20 different winners and a lot of bad luck for everyone else(probably not even possible)

It'd be possible in a season with a huge number of driver changes, 1994 level.

[IceG]

Nearly a year since we discussed this so thought it might be fun to review where we are...

Verstappen really does look like prime contender, but he needs reliability

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team.

Ocon is a hungry beggar isn't he?

My views now:

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team, how about at Ferrari with Vettel as the #2 driver. But he is my current most likely candidate.

Verstappen needs discipline, he knows how to win a race but not a championship...yet.

Leclerc and possibly Gasly look like good long-term bets.

[dinizintheoven]

My views now:
Ricciardo needs to be in a different team, how about at Ferrari with Vettel as the #2 driver. But he is my current most likely candidate.
Verstappen needs discipline, he knows how to win a race but not a championship...yet.
Leclerc and possibly Gasly look like good long-term bets.

Now does seem like a good time to review the potential 2019 Silly Season Driver Merry-Go-Round Extravaganza - which I was thinking of during the race after Channel 4 were desperately trying to get Daniel Ricciardo to spill the beans on what his next move was, and whether this race would change his contrac

I'd wager that Kimi Räikkiönen will retire at the end of this season to... do whatever it is he'll do, probably involving vodka and jetskis (though hopefully not at the same time), thus creating a scramble for the Ferrari seat similar to the hole at Mercedes when Nico Rosberg suddenly upped sticks and left. And Ferrari, despite having effectively a B-team and a C-team, aren't likely to make the promotion from within. Rrrrrmmmnnnn Grrrrrrrrjjjjjnn went to Haas to audition for that other Ferrari seat... and he's fluffed his lines at the worst possible time. Kevin Magnussen would be a better bet, but I get the impression he's at Haas more because he was a convenient reason for them to sack Esteban Gutiérrez than because he was due for the promotion to the top job. And Ferrari aren't known for taking a punt on youngsters, no matter how good they are - I suspect they'll give the First Lap Nutcase the elbow and Charles Leclerc will be at Haas next year to see if he can convince the Ferrari management to take him on next time there's a seat available.

And, as IceG suggests, Ferrari will be dangling the fishing line in the Red Bull garage. Daniel Ricciardo has to be convinced Red Bull can give him a championship-winning car if he's going to stay... and even if he does sign with them, will it have a Honda engine, and will Max Verstappen be given all the best equipment as befits his Golden Boy status at the team? If Max doesn't shape up soon he'll have made more mistakes in the season than Daniil Kvyat managed... but I don't think there is any chance they'll give him the boot, ever, no matter how badly he screws up - it just seems to be the way there.

Vettel and Ricciardo at Ferrari - it could work, and we all know what happened in the one season they were paired together. The engine's more powerful than the Renault that RB are using now or the Honda they might be using in the near future... then again, Fernando Alonso thought the same would happen for him in 2010 and it didn't, although it should have done.

Talking of Fernando, if he also decides he's had enough of F1, the not-quite-as-prized-as-it-once-was McLaren seat would be available, but I can't think of too many candidates for it unless Mercedes pension off Valtteri Bottas with a gold watch and a "thanks for being a number two like your Finnish counterpart"... which, most likely, means Esteban Ocon is promoted to the second Mercedes to get his first win or two on the board, and a convenient slot opens up in the Pink Panther to see if George Russell is any good at this level... who Mercedes might already be lining up as Lewis Hamilton's eventual successor. And if he is as good as he's reputed to be, what's to stop Mercedes solving Williams' deepening financial problems by paying off their bills, so they can get rid of one of their dead weights and give George Russell a race or six this year just to see if he could help them overhaul Sauber and avoid the wooden spoon?

And then there's all this talk of another Mercedes man, Pascal Wehrlein, taking the seat that Brendon Hartley might be shoved out of in the near future. He'd also be doing a better job than either of the current Williams drivers, could also have a crack at matching Pierre Gasly's heroics from earlier in the year, but it'd have to be the kind of cross-manufacturer deal that saw Carlos Sainz loaned to Renault - which I'd expect to be a permanent move, because if Daniel Ricciardo does leave RB, Pierre Gasly will be promoted as quickly and without question as Daniil Kvyat was in 2014.

A more surprising scenario would be... what if Lewis Hamilton wins his fifth World Championship this year, says "I'm as good as Fangio now, innit", and decides to retire in a blaze of glory, thus opening up another unexpected seat at Mercedes - do they fight Ferrari for Ricciardo's services or go with an Ocon / Bottas combination, do they offer Fernando Alonso one last shot at a third title, do they apologise to Pascal Wehrlein for passing over him last time and give him the drive...

[Turbogirl]

(MANY INTERESTING THOUGHTS)

I'd like to point out that I kinda have lost touch with F1 over the past two years, so I don't know too much about the young guns there, but most of the driver names here ring a bell (or two), so I'd like to throw in my own two cents, if I may...

Ferrari could be promoting from their B-team(s), if Räikkönen decides to hang up his helmet. Vettel/Ricciardo would be an interesting combo (yet again), but pretty unlikely, given that Ferrari has always been (and still is) a one-man-show. Vettel was brought in for big cash to act as a new Schumi. From what I understand, it was his wish to be partnered with Räikkönen, which indicates that Vettel has the final say in the driver choice at Ferrari. Given his previous experience with Ricciardo, I doubt he'll say yes to such a deal.

And although it hasn't happened very often, Ferrari could be going for youngsters. They did it with Villeneuve (which worked), they did it in the 90's with Alesi/Capelli (which didn't work because of the underwhelming car design), and later with Irvine to partner Schumi.

Grosjean won't be it, though. Because of what you already mentioned, and because he hasn't matured in all those years. He's still the modern day equivalent of DeCrasheris, which is poison for a team eager to finally win the championship again. I'd love to see Hülkenberg get his well-deserved chance, but I'm dreaming...

Hamilton, on the other hand, won't be calling it quits that easily, I think. For this new generation of drivers, Fangio isn't the man to beat anymore. Not since Schumi came along. I wouldn't bet on it, but Hamilton might be staying a little while longer, if Mercedes can still provide him with a winning car. Probably with Bottas as his partner. They seem to be working fine, just like Hamilton and Kovalainen did back at McLaren ten years ago. And Bottas to replace Räikkönen at Ferrari might be too far-fetched, because why would Bottas trade places, if he's not even promoted to teamleader at his new outfit? Which he won't as long as Vettel stays on board.

It's actually quite a shame that F1 teams don't go fishing for drivers in other ponds anymore (aside from lower formula divisions). Indycar or even Formula E might produce some quite interesting results – when even Hartley got a second chance at F1 after so many years in other series. But I'm dreaming again...

[Bobby Doorknobs]

Turbogirl, I'm puzzled by your use of Irvine as an example of a "young driver", given that he was more than three years Schumacher's senior, had a fair amount of F1 experience and plenty of top-line racing experience in general with the Toyota sportscar team. Capelli equally was a driver of five mostly strong years' worth of F1 experience and was effectively due a top drive. Massa would be a much better example. But I digress...

As I see it, I don't think Charles Leclerc is at the top of Ferrari's immediate short-term wishlist, as impressive as he's been. I think we're more likely to get one final year of Raikkonen before promoting Leclerc. To Diniz's suggestion that Leclerc could go to Haas, I don't buy that. With the increased investment Sauber are now getting from FCA it's clear that they, not Haas, are Ferrari's B-team, with Haas up to this point not having shown a great deal of interest in running Ferrari juniors in anything further than free practice sessions. Gene very clearly wants to keep any Ferrari interference to a bare minimum while he tries to build a team that can stand on its own two feet. If Leclerc stays at Sauber next year he could be fighting for points more often, whereas if he moves to Haas... he'd very likely be doing the same thing while having to learn a new team. There just wouldn't be much point in him moving.

To the suggestion of Ricciardo, I don't buy the "one-man show" argument, nor do I buy the one that Vettel has final say on who partners him. Vettel was, it seems, happy with Raikkonen because he didn't get in the way. Ferrari, also, for much the same reason as with Massa post-2009, were happy to keep him on. I really don't think Ferrari were just capitulating to Vettel's wishes by keeping Raikkonen.

But, while Ferrari certainly might historically favour a hierarchy within their lineup, you don't have to go too far back to find a more egalitarian regime in the form of Massa-Raikkonen: two somewhat evenly matched teammates who both either won or nearly won the world title while together, with the team only throwing their weight behind one when the other seemed about to drop out of the title race. Massa-Alonso, if I'm remembering correctly, was much the same arrangement until that day in Hockenheim if not before.

I do think, like Diniz and IceG, that Ferrari will absolutely go after Ricciardo and they'd be foolish not to, even if it potentially upsets Vettel. There would have to be negotiations behind closed doors at least.

[Turbogirl]

Turbogirl, I'm puzzled by your use of Irvine as an example of a "young driver", given that he was more than three years Schumacher's senior, had a fair amount of F1 experience and plenty of top-line racing experience in general with the Toyota sportscar team. Capelli equally was a driver of five mostly strong years' worth of F1 experience and was effectively due a top drive. Massa would be a much better example. But I digress...

Capelli might be a bad example, I give you that, but I used Irvine solely based on his F1 experience, which was about 2 years for Jordan. He didn't have much more F1 experience than Massa (who would have been a perfect example, thank you ) had in 2005, which was 2 seasons for Sauber. F1 is a bit picky when it comes to experience in racing series other than lower formula divisions, so they might have ignored Irvine's sportscar foray. It didn't help Brundle, McNish, or Lotterer either.

To the suggestion of Ricciardo, I don't buy the "one-man show" argument, nor do I buy the one that Vettel has final say on who partners him. Vettel was, it seems, happy with Raikkonen because he didn't get in the way. Ferrari, also, for much the same reason as with Massa post-2009, were happy to keep him on. I really don't think Ferrari were just capitulating to Vettel's wishes by keeping Raikkonen.
But, while Ferrari certainly might historically favour a hierarchy within their lineup, you don't have to go too far back to find a more egalitarian regime in the form of Massa-Raikkonen (...)

That's true, but neither Massa nor Räikkönen were champions prior to their Ferrari commitment. Vettel has four titles under his belt, so he could as well have a special deal like the one Schumacher had back in 1996. The prancing horse couldn't have been his only motivation to move to Ferrari.

[James1978]

IIRC about Irvine, Ferrari signed him specifically as they needed someone who was mentally strong enough to cope with being Schumi's back-up man. It worked until 1999 until Irvine got a taste of winning himself!

[CarloSpace]

IIRC about Irvine, Ferrari signed him specifically as they needed someone who was mentally strong enough to cope with being Schumi's back-up man. It worked until 1999 until Irvine got a taste of winning himself!

Wasn't Salo on top of their list at the time but since Ken Tyrrell didn't feel like letting him go Ferrari had to "settle" for Irvine?

[Salamander]

No driver is bigger than Ferrari. Michael Schumacher wasn't, in the end, and neither is Sebastian Vettel. If Arrivabene/Marchionne want a driver like Ricciardo to shore up their WCC aspirations, they'll get him, Vettel be damned.

IIRC about Irvine, Ferrari signed him specifically as they needed someone who was mentally strong enough to cope with being Schumi's back-up man. It worked until 1999 until Irvine got a taste of winning himself!

Wasn't Salo on top of their list at the time but since Ken Tyrrell didn't feel like letting him go Ferrari had to "settle" for Irvine?

Nah, Ferrari were gunning for Coulthard actually. Since they couldn't pry him out of McLaren (nor did he particularly want to be Schumi's number 2), Eccelstone, who was temporarily managing Irvine at the time, managed to convince Ferrari and Marlboro to pay a combined $8 million to get him out of Jordan.

[TomWazzleshaw]

No driver is bigger than Ferrari. Michael Schumacher wasn't, in the end, and neither is Sebastian Vettel. If Arrivabene/Marchionne want a driver like Ricciardo to shore up their WCC aspirations, they'll get him, Vettel be damned.

IIRC about Irvine, Ferrari signed him specifically as they needed someone who was mentally strong enough to cope with being Schumi's back-up man. It worked until 1999 until Irvine got a taste of winning himself!

Wasn't Salo on top of their list at the time but since Ken Tyrrell didn't feel like letting him go Ferrari had to "settle" for Irvine?

Nah, Ferrari were gunning for Coulthard actually. Since they couldn't pry him out of McLaren (nor did he particularly want to be Schumi's number 2), Eccelstone, who was temporarily managing Irvine at the time, managed to convince Ferrari and Marlboro to pay a combined $8 million to get him out of Jordan.

And that was all after their Plan A Gerhard Berger decided that Benetton was better than the prospect of being number 2 to Schumacher

[CarloSpace]

No driver is bigger than Ferrari. Michael Schumacher wasn't, in the end, and neither is Sebastian Vettel. If Arrivabene/Marchionne want a driver like Ricciardo to shore up their WCC aspirations, they'll get him, Vettel be damned.

IIRC about Irvine, Ferrari signed him specifically as they needed someone who was mentally strong enough to cope with being Schumi's back-up man. It worked until 1999 until Irvine got a taste of winning himself!

Wasn't Salo on top of their list at the time but since Ken Tyrrell didn't feel like letting him go Ferrari had to "settle" for Irvine?

Nah, Ferrari were gunning for Coulthard actually. Since they couldn't pry him out of McLaren (nor did he particularly want to be Schumi's number 2), Eccelstone, who was temporarily managing Irvine at the time, managed to convince Ferrari and Marlboro to pay a combined $8 million to get him out of Jordan.

Had to check this one and according to Salo himself Ferrari tried to buy out his contract in mid-1995 but Ken was having none of it. So I'd assume Salo was at least higher on their list than Irvine, even if DC was the first choice.

[IceG]

Nearly a year since we discussed this so thought it might be fun to review where we are...

Verstappen really does look like prime contender, but he needs reliability

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team.

Ocon is a hungry beggar isn't he?

My views now:

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team, how about at Ferrari with Vettel as the #2 driver. But he is my current most likely candidate.

Verstappen needs discipline, he knows how to win a race but not a championship...yet.

Leclerc and possibly Gasly look like good long-term bets.

Thought it might be worth reviving this thread given that Ricciardo has gone to another team (to no avail), Vettel is starting to look like a #2 driver, Verstappen is looking frustrated and Leclerc is looking like the prime candidate

[mario]

Nearly a year since we discussed this so thought it might be fun to review where we are...

Verstappen really does look like prime contender, but he needs reliability

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team.

Ocon is a hungry beggar isn't he?

My views now:

Ricciardo needs to be in a different team, how about at Ferrari with Vettel as the #2 driver. But he is my current most likely candidate.

Verstappen needs discipline, he knows how to win a race but not a championship...yet.

Leclerc and possibly Gasly look like good long-term bets.

Thought it might be worth reviving this thread given that Ricciardo has gone to another team (to no avail), Vettel is starting to look like a #2 driver, Verstappen is looking frustrated and Leclerc is looking like the prime candidate

It's notable that Jos Verstappen is now starting to more aggressively criticise Red Bull in public, and has recently been on the record complaining that Red Bull need to up their development game. https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/jos- ... r/4551016/

It's certainly true that, right now, Gasly doesn't look like a likely WDC contender, and the way that Jos is beginning to criticise Red Bull suggests that he is concerned that Max isn't going to win a title soon either. As for Renault, if the planned budget restrictions do start to impact the bigger teams, then perhaps his strategy might pay off in the long term - but, right now, their customers at McLaren seem to be on a more positive upward trajectory.

If, and it is a big if, Ferrari can carry their current form through into 2019, then they would at least have a car that has the potential to take the WDC. However, that then brings a whole host of additional complications - the strategic operations side of Ferrari has been the subject of much criticism, but the really difficult situation would be relations between the drivers and whether the team can manage such a maelstrom.

If things are tricky now, how tricky might they then become if Leclerc and Vettel knew they had a car that could take them to the WDC? You get the sense from recent races that both drivers would "played’st most foully for ’t", to use the line from Macbeth, if there was a real sense the WDC was potentially on the line - and, in the process, you wouldn't put it past them to end up costing each other enough points to let somebody else through.

It almost makes you wonder if we're not going to see a new WDC until Hamilton finally retires and his seat becomes available at Mercedes. Whilst there has been a focus on the cars, Mercedes have also shown great strength in terms of their operational side - it's hard to see any team where their operations and their driver line ups are both in harmony and competitive enough to win the WDC.

[yannicksamlad]

Realistically ( I think I'm being realistic, but may be wrong) , it's Leclerc in a Ferrari who would seem likely to have a better chance than Verstappen in an RB-Honda in 2020. After that - new rules may mean Red Bull Honda make the best car and Max could do it. But 2021 is too uncertain to predict, so looking only at next year, Charles has the best chance , surely?

[IceG]

Firstly - great to be back!

It is 18 months since we last looked at this and a lot has changed (and a lot has not).

We have four current or former World Champions on the grid (Alonso, Vettel, Räikkönen and Hamilton) so we have 16 choices...

Verstappen is, for me, clearly the outstanding candidate having the best chance for 2021 as he is in the right team, with the right car and, with Perez, he has the right team-mate in support.

Ferrari does not look like a championship-winning car, so not Leclerc or Sainz, and Bottas has lost to often to come back.

Thoughts?