History in favor of Webber's championship?

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DonTirri
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History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by DonTirri »

From: http://pitpass.com/fes_php/pitpass_news_item.php?fes_art_id=41745


In 1959, Jack Brabham became Australia's first Formula One World Champion. He won his title in a Cooper, the team's first Constructors' Championship win.

Twenty-one years later, in 1980, Alan Jones became Australia's second Formula One World Champion. He won his title in a Williams, the team's first Constructors' Championship win.

In 2010, Australian Mark Webber is leading the Drivers' Championship. His team, Red Bull, is currently favourite to win its first Constructors' Championship.

Discuss.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by kowalski »

21 Years later...

Hammilton this year - then webber next... (first championship for Red Bull).


Actually - No... Hammilton this year then slide into obscurity next season for Webber is more likely.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Phoenix »

Not necessarily. If Webber wins, which is a very possible situation assuming that the Red Bull Feud doesn't get any worse, it would be pure coincidence.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by eagleash »

Phoenix wrote:Not necessarily. If Webber wins, which is a very possible situation assuming that the Red Bull Feud doesn't get any worse, it would be pure coincidence.


Exactly! :)
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by CarlosFerreira »

eagleash wrote:
Phoenix wrote:Not necessarily. If Webber wins, which is a very possible situation assuming that the Red Bull Feud doesn't get any worse, it would be pure coincidence.


Exactly! :)


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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by coops »

Phoenix wrote:Not necessarily. If Webber wins, which is a very possible situation assuming that the Red Bull Feud doesn't get any worse, it would be pure coincidence.

Yeah, I agree. Ive never been one for all that. The old favourite used to be 'The winner of the first race nearly always takes the title'. Theres nothing more in that than that particular car/team/driver combo being a bit better prepared than the rest. Wasnt there something about Monaco winners too?
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by IdeFan »

History is in favor of Webber's championship because hes is in the lead with nearly 2/3 of the season gone, has the fastest car and has won twice as many races as anyone else has so far.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by eagleash »

Who left the door open? Logic has got into the threads again.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by mario »

eagleash wrote:Who left the door open? Logic has got into the threads again.

Apologies in advance, but you're just about to get a bit more thrown at you.

In some ways, both Brabham and Jones also share another thing in common, which is they both took advantage of the fact that they had a good car, and drove solidly to take the title, managing to beat fairly well regarded team mates in the process (Bruce Mclaren in Brabham's case and Reutermann for Jones). Whether Webber will is another matter.

We know that the next two races - Spa and Monza - are likely to favour the MP4/25 and F10 over the RB6. Although for Spa, Red Bull might have a chance of pole, as their car is likely to be very quick in the middle of the lap, Monza is very likely to go to either Mclaren or Ferrari. So, the next two races are likely to be damage limitation exercises for Red Bull, which means that it is likely that a non Red Bull driver might temporarily lead the WDC.

Now, we know that Red Bull have publicly announced that they are going to favour the driver who is highest in the rankings, which at the moment is Mark, with that slender 10 points lead. What is going to be critical is whether he can stay ahead of Vettel over the next two races - if he does, then the team will probably have to back him over Vettel. After all, once we are past Monza, then the remaining track are going to favour Red Bull, so Webber should be comfortably in the hunt for wins (Singapore requires good downforce, like Monaco and Hungary, and we saw how strong Red Bull was on those tracks, Suzuka, because Sector 1 plays right to their strengths, as will the middle sector of Interlagos, and the first and last sectors at Abu Dhabi - only Korea is an unknown, but most likely it'll be a Red bull circuit).

What Mark will really have to avoid, though, is any unnecessary confrontations on the track - Valencia showed that on occasion, he can make some very bad decisions, and failing to score for one round now would severely reduce his chances. So, yes, Webber can do it, but he needs to avoid any silly accidents, and he has to stay ahead of Vettel for the next few races if he wants the team to rally themselves around him - otherwise, there is a good chance that he will be become that No. 2 driver, and be called upon to back Vettel up instead.

coops wrote:
Phoenix wrote:Not necessarily. If Webber wins, which is a very possible situation assuming that the Red Bull Feud doesn't get any worse, it would be pure coincidence.

Yeah, I agree. Ive never been one for all that. The old favourite used to be 'The winner of the first race nearly always takes the title'. Theres nothing more in that than that particular car/team/driver combo being a bit better prepared than the rest. Wasnt there something about Monaco winners too?

Monaco is quite a poor indicator of form - being such an unusual circuit, the car characteristics required are very different to the rest of the circuits used during the season, and it has often given misleading results.

Here is the list of winners at Monaco, from this year, all the way back to 1990.
2010: Webber
2009: Button
2008: Hamilton
2007: Alonso
2006: Alonso
2005: Raikkonen
2004: Trulli
2003: Montoya
2002:Coulthard
2001: Schumacher
2000: Coulthard
1999: Schumacher
1998: Hakkinen
1997: Schumacher
1996: Panis
1995: Schumacher
1994: Schumacher
1993: Senna
1992: Senna
1991: Senna
1990: Senna

Now, out of those races, in '92, '93, '96, '97, '99, '00, '02, '03, '04, '05 and '07, the winner of the race would not win the title that season - OK, a few of those results were due to freak conditions, but even so, in a number of those cases, the winner was not the best team in the field - for example, Coulthard won in 2002 when Ferrari had one of the most dominant cars in the sport, on a similar level to cars like the 1992 FW14.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by DonTirri »

Also in the 80's only Prost managed to win Monaco and the championship on the same year.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by eagleash »

DonTirri wrote:Also in the 80's only Prost managed to win Monaco and the championship on the same year.


& as far as we know; no-one has had a Magnum & Coke WHILST taking a sheet
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Ross Prawn »

IdeFan wrote:History is in favor of Webber's championship because hes is in the lead with nearly 2/3 of the season gone, has the fastest car and has won twice as many races as anyone else has so far.


Stop saying that, you'll only make Sebastian cry again !
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by IdeFan »

I was bored, so I decided to do some random maths. 12/19 races means 63% of the season gone, 11/19 was 57%, so I decided to check the championship leader after 60% of the season against eventual champion, so thats after 11 races for an 18 race season, 10 races for 16 race season etc.

Here are the years where the eventual champion wasn't leading at the 60% mark.

2007 - Hamilton leads, eventual champion Raikkonen 20 points behind!
1999 - Irvine, Hakkinen -8.
1997 - Schumacher, Villeneuve -3.
1988 - Prost tied with Senna!
1986 - Mansell, Prost -7.
1984 - Prost, Lauda -2.5.
1983 - Prost, Piquet -6. Poor Alain, that's his third appearance on this list.
1982 - Watson, Rosberg -9.
1981 - Reutemann, Piquet -17.
1976 - Lauda, Hunt -26. We all know what happened during that race.
1974 - Lauda, Fittipaldi -5.
1964 - Clark, Surtees -20. Surtees hardly finished a race in the first half, Clark hardly finished a race in the second.
1961 - Von Trips, P. Hill -4. Another tragedy.
1956 - Collins, Fangio -1. (I didn't count the Indy 500)

So that's 14 times in 59 seasons, so by this irrefutable mathematics Webber has a 76.3% chance of being champion!
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by TomWazzleshaw »

And discouting everything before 1990 it's only happened 3 times in the last 20 years which is a 15% conversion rate and... you can do the rest of the maths.

I think a better question would be when was the last time we had 5 geniune championship contenders so far into the season.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by thehemogoblin »

Wizzie wrote:And discouting everything before 1990 it's only happened 3 times in the last 20 years which is a 15% conversion rate and... you can do the rest of the maths.

I think a better question would be when was the last time we had 5 geniune championship contenders so far into the season.

Two years ago?
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by TomWazzleshaw »

thehemogoblin wrote:
Wizzie wrote:And discouting everything before 1990 it's only happened 3 times in the last 20 years which is a 15% conversion rate and... you can do the rest of the maths.

I think a better question would be when was the last time we had 5 geniune championship contenders so far into the season.

Two years ago?


We only had 4 in 2008. Heidfeld was good but not great and Kovy just couldn't hold a candle to Lewis.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by coops »

mario wrote:Now, out of those races, in '92, '93, '96, '97, '99, '00, '02, '03, '04, '05 and '07, the winner of the race would not win the title that season.

Yeah, that was it. 'Drivers tht won Monaco didnt win the championship' and vice versa. Mansell started it. Perhaps.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by mario »

Wizzie wrote:And discouting everything before 1990 it's only happened 3 times in the last 20 years which is a 15% conversion rate and... you can do the rest of the maths.

I think a better question would be when was the last time we had 5 geniune championship contenders so far into the season.

2003 perhaps? Even so, that is stretching things a bit.

Thinking about it, it is unusual for there to be so many drivers in contention for the title, certainly up until recently. After all, in order to have 5 drivers in contention, you need to have a situation where you have five strong drivers, all driving for at least three teams which are reasonably close together. Normally, you'd have just two teams with a fast enough car to win on a regular basis, and often you'd have a case where one driver was the stronger of the two, and had a clear advantage - meaning that it was often the case that you'd only have two or possibly three drivers in contention.
By rights, we really shouldn't be in this situation, though - it is only because Red Bull cocked up so much in the beginning of the season that they are remotely close to Ferrari and Mclaren. Both Vettel and Webber could be comfortably leading, had it not been for clumsy strategy blunders, either of their own making (e.g. Webber's extra pit stop in Australia), or being too slow to react to others (e.g. staying out for far too long on inters during the Australian GP), manufacturing defects and generally being their own worst enemies.
With the speed of the RB6, and with most of their reliability problems going away (OK, they have still had some problems - Webber's faulty oil pump in Germany), they aren't going to keep rolling out the red carpet for others to take advantage for much longer - so unless Ferrari and Mclaren have stepped up their efforts, I don't think that we will see this many drivers still in contention for too long, and I expect it'll narrow down to three, or even just two, drivers soon enough.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Waris »

When I first read this, I was all like "SSSSH! Shut UP! Don't jinx it!"
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by DonTirri »

Waris wrote:When I first read this, I was all like "SSSSH! Shut UP! Don't jinx it!"


Well, I AM a Vettel-fan after all ;)
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Phoenix »

mario wrote:
Wizzie wrote:And discouting everything before 1990 it's only happened 3 times in the last 20 years which is a 15% conversion rate and... you can do the rest of the maths.

I think a better question would be when was the last time we had 5 geniune championship contenders so far into the season.

2003 perhaps? Even so, that is stretching things a bit.

Thinking about it, it is unusual for there to be so many drivers in contention for the title, certainly up until recently. After all, in order to have 5 drivers in contention, you need to have a situation where you have five strong drivers, all driving for at least three teams which are reasonably close together. Normally, you'd have just two teams with a fast enough car to win on a regular basis, and often you'd have a case where one driver was the stronger of the two, and had a clear advantage - meaning that it was often the case that you'd only have two or possibly three drivers in contention.
By rights, we really shouldn't be in this situation, though - it is only because Red Bull cocked up so much in the beginning of the season that they are remotely close to Ferrari and Mclaren. Both Vettel and Webber could be comfortably leading, had it not been for clumsy strategy blunders, either of their own making (e.g. Webber's extra pit stop in Australia), or being too slow to react to others (e.g. staying out for far too long on inters during the Australian GP), manufacturing defects and generally being their own worst enemies.
With the speed of the RB6, and with most of their reliability problems going away (OK, they have still had some problems - Webber's faulty oil pump in Germany), they aren't going to keep rolling out the red carpet for others to take advantage for much longer - so unless Ferrari and Mclaren have stepped up their efforts, I don't think that we will see this many drivers still in contention for too long, and I expect it'll narrow down to three, or even just two, drivers soon enough.

And that without the Mercedes drivers, who were thought to be prime candidates, and with Massa treading water...I think we can have this same situation of 5 drivers all close together in the lead, because Ferrari is improving and is beginning to catch up with Red Bull, and McLaren won't drop the ball and has 2 circuits (Spa and Monza) where they should be very strong. And I believe the difference will be marked mostly by the drivers and their errors (or lack thereof).
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by TomPryce »

Hi, as you can probably guess I am new here. I've been trawling this website for a good two years now, and only now think the time is right to start posting.

Even though I have been following F1 for 15 years, I am no expert. I enjoy the racing, I enjoy the off-track action and I especially love learning and absorbing the facts and figures that make F1 the show that it is.

I will say this now - I am gunning for Webber to win this championship. He appears to be such a generally nice guy, someone who's ego is hidden beneath a deep desire to be successful. Unlike other drivers in the paddock he doesn't seem to be a media hog either, which only increases my liking of him. What gets me though is his turnaround from midfield-man to title contender. Some would say it's the car, but I think Webber's natural talent is amplified by his machine. He's had such a raw deal in his 8 years in F1, and I think he's now starting to come good. I don't care if others are faster - there is no other driver I would love to see win more than Mark.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by TomWazzleshaw »

TomPryce wrote:I will say this now - I am gunning for Webber to win this championship. He appears to be such a generally nice guy, someone who's ego is hidden beneath a deep desire to be successful. Unlike other drivers in the paddock he doesn't seem to be a media hog either, which only increases my liking of him. What gets me though is his turnaround from midfield-man to title contender. Some would say it's the car, but I think Webber's natural talent is amplified by his machine. He's had such a raw deal in his 8 years in F1, and I think he's now starting to come good. I don't care if others are faster - there is no other driver I would love to see win more than Mark.


I think that post deserves this:
BINGO! Someone give this man a beer. :mrgreen:
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by CarlosFerreira »

Wizzie wrote:
TomPryce wrote:I will say this now - I am gunning for Webber to win this championship. He appears to be such a generally nice guy, someone who's ego is hidden beneath a deep desire to be successful. Unlike other drivers in the paddock he doesn't seem to be a media hog either, which only increases my liking of him. What gets me though is his turnaround from midfield-man to title contender. Some would say it's the car, but I think Webber's natural talent is amplified by his machine. He's had such a raw deal in his 8 years in F1, and I think he's now starting to come good. I don't care if others are faster - there is no other driver I would love to see win more than Mark.


I think that post deserves this:
BINGO! Someone give this man a beer. :mrgreen:


Ans I'm seconding that.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Phoenix »

TomPryce wrote:I will say this now - I am gunning for Webber to win this championship. He appears to be such a generally nice guy, someone who's ego is hidden beneath a deep desire to be successful. Unlike other drivers in the paddock he doesn't seem to be a media hog either, which only increases my liking of him. What gets me though is his turnaround from midfield-man to title contender. Some would say it's the car, but I think Webber's natural talent is amplified by his machine. He's had such a raw deal in his 8 years in F1, and I think he's now starting to come good. I don't care if others are faster - there is no other driver I would love to see win more than Mark.

As a long fan of Alonso, I hope for him to win the championship, but if he didn't manage that, then I hope it's Webber before anyone else (especially Vettel).
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Salamander »

I'll also come out in support of Webber - he's had to fight with subpar machinery through most of his career, and he's proved he deserves his chance by matching and beating everyone else this year.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by mario »

TomPryce wrote:Hi, as you can probably guess I am new here. I've been trawling this website for a good two years now, and only now think the time is right to start posting.

Even though I have been following F1 for 15 years, I am no expert. I enjoy the racing, I enjoy the off-track action and I especially love learning and absorbing the facts and figures that make F1 the show that it is.

I will say this now - I am gunning for Webber to win this championship. He appears to be such a generally nice guy, someone who's ego is hidden beneath a deep desire to be successful. Unlike other drivers in the paddock he doesn't seem to be a media hog either, which only increases my liking of him. What gets me though is his turnaround from midfield-man to title contender. Some would say it's the car, but I think Webber's natural talent is amplified by his machine. He's had such a raw deal in his 8 years in F1, and I think he's now starting to come good. I don't care if others are faster - there is no other driver I would love to see win more than Mark.

Welcome, and I'm sure that you will find that we can be a friendly bunch here - especially if you support Webber, it seems.
On a more serious note, it does seem that, within the paddock, Webber would be a very popular champion. In several ways, he is very different - his first high profile racing was at Le Mans for Mercedes, when most of the current crop have only raced open wheeled cars, he has had to struggle his way up the field, and suffered his share of misfortune (and then some), come back from a broken leg last year to fight back and win races, and this year he has taken the bull by the horns, so to speak, and stuck it on the winners step more times then anybody else. He's not afraid to let people know what he thinks in a media obsessed age, and he is in many ways a refreshing change to the characters surrounding him.

However, it seems that there are those who would not be quite as happy. Ecclestone, for example, believes that Vettel would be a worthy champion, and you can see why he would be interested in him winning. Vettel could, in the long run, bolster a flagging German market, which, though very profitable, has been in decline since 2006 (even Schumacher's return this year has only given numbers a small boost), and being so youthful, Ecclestone must believe that he would be a very marketable figure. So, there are some who look to their hearts, and others to their heads, there are those who look to their wallets first...
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by DemocalypseNow »

mario wrote:
TomPryce wrote:Hi, as you can probably guess I am new here. I've been trawling this website for a good two years now, and only now think the time is right to start posting.

Even though I have been following F1 for 15 years, I am no expert. I enjoy the racing, I enjoy the off-track action and I especially love learning and absorbing the facts and figures that make F1 the show that it is.

I will say this now - I am gunning for Webber to win this championship. He appears to be such a generally nice guy, someone who's ego is hidden beneath a deep desire to be successful. Unlike other drivers in the paddock he doesn't seem to be a media hog either, which only increases my liking of him. What gets me though is his turnaround from midfield-man to title contender. Some would say it's the car, but I think Webber's natural talent is amplified by his machine. He's had such a raw deal in his 8 years in F1, and I think he's now starting to come good. I don't care if others are faster - there is no other driver I would love to see win more than Mark.

Welcome, and I'm sure that you will find that we can be a friendly bunch here - especially if you support Webber, it seems.

However if you're a Schumacher fan, you can bugger off. :lol:
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by coops »

BlindCaveSalamander wrote:I'll also come out in support of Webber - he's had to fight with subpar machinery through most of his career, and he's proved he deserves his chance by matching and beating everyone else this year.

It'd be ripper if Webber won because it could be his best/only chance. Vettel seems a nice guy, pretty down to earth but Im not with the majority that think he's an automatic to take a title. Hes won some races but what sticks in my mind are the races hes lost, often with no-one to blame but himself. Oh sure, hes young but you never when an on-form team/car can slide back into difficulty.

I think Buttons attitude is entertaining. If he wins the title he'll be a happy man but if he doesnt thats ok, he's got one of those at home already.

Alonso and Hamilton are the only other threats for Webber and, to me, his biggest. They're both hell bent on bigger numbers and even bigger trophy cabinets and are quite happy to crash/bend the rules to achieve this.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by TomPryce »

Oh don't worry, I am no Schumacher fan. I always root for the underdog - I suppose that is another reason why I have favoured Webber throughout his career!
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CarlosFerreira
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by CarlosFerreira »

coops wrote:I think Buttons attitude is entertaining. If he wins the title he'll be a happy man but if he doesnt thats ok, he's got one of those at home already.


Right you are. My respect for Button has been growing and growing this year, partly because of this.
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dr-baker
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

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CarlosFerreira wrote:
coops wrote:I think Buttons attitude is entertaining. If he wins the title he'll be a happy man but if he doesnt thats ok, he's got one of those at home already.


Right you are. My respect for Button has been growing and growing this year, partly because of this.

This is why I hope either Button or Webber win the championship - they realise there's more to life without being as blaze as Kimi was.
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jackanderton
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by jackanderton »

I reckon Webber will win the Championship this year. He's been more consistent than Vettel, is in a faster car than Hamilton and is way ahead of Alonso on points. It's his to throw away.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by FullMetalJack »

jackanderton wrote:I reckon Webber will win the Championship this year. He's been more consistent than Vettel, is in a faster car than Hamilton and is way ahead of Alonso on points. It's his to throw away.


I really hope he or Button wins the title this season. I find Vettel and Hamilton really irritating and Ferrari have left it a bit late for Alonso's championship bid.
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coops
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by coops »

redbulljack14 wrote:Ferrari have left it a bit late for Alonso's championship bid.

And whatever our opinion may be, should Ferrari win a title, the media will colour all coverage of it with references to Hockenheim (and any subsequent switeroos that occur). That always leaves a bad taste.
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mario
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by mario »

coops wrote:
redbulljack14 wrote:Ferrari have left it a bit late for Alonso's championship bid.

And whatever our opinion may be, should Ferrari win a title, the media will colour all coverage of it with references to Hockenheim (and any subsequent switeroos that occur). That always leaves a bad taste.

The sour taste could be coming sooner instead of later, because Max has been chipping in with his $0.02, and in his typically thundering style, has demanded that Massa and Alonso are stripped of their points.
"Both cars and both drivers should lose the points they achieved in the German Grand Prix," he said. "I will not make any recommendation, but on the facts at the moment there should have been some sporting sanction and not only a fine."

Nice to see that Max is also up to his usual standards of obfuscation and double standards - setting out his theoretical punishment, before stating that he will "make no recommendations", and implying that the stewards should have taken stricter action, when he knows that a) they applied the maximum fine and b) they chose to refer the incident to the WMSC because they can pass a stricter sentence.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/86074
Still, it appears that he is pushing for a punishment which most people seem to think would be appropriate (a loss of points), although I suspect that there are those who would hope for a harsher punishment.

It'll be interesting to see what Ferrari's response is - when Lauda criticised Ferrari, claiming that their actions made a mockery of the fans (but, overall, it wasn't the harshest criticism of the team that I have seen), in this article http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/86003 the response of Ferrari, here http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/86029 was to say that Lauda should "keep his mouth shut", in an outstandingly bucolic and quite personal attack on Lauda. To be honest, the manner of Ferrari's reply was a bit distasteful for my liking (they might have divergent opinions - Lauda said as much - but the indignation and frankly childish tone of Ferrari is, frankly, not necessary).
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coops
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by coops »

mario wrote:The sour taste could be coming sooner instead of later, because Max has been chipping in with his $0.02, and in his typically thundering style, has demanded that Massa and Alonso are stripped of their pants and given a damn good non-nazi thrashing.

Fixed. I also read that and I would expect Jean Todts reaction on reading same to be,

"Meh".
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

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Even after he's left the sport, Moseley can't help but continue to stick his nose in while Jean Todt keeps his mouth shut, which the president should do, to prevent accusations of bias.
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CarlosFerreira
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

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jackanderton wrote:I reckon Webber will win the Championship this year. He's been more consistent than Vettel, is in a faster car than Hamilton and is way ahead of Alonso on points. It's his to throw away.


It is his team's to throw away. Vettel will come from holidays decided to beat him no matter what, and 2/3 of the team will support him. The exact opposite to Ferrari.
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Re: History in favor of Webber's championship?

Post by Phoenix »

mario wrote:The sour taste could be coming sooner instead of later, because Max has been chipping in with his $0.02, and in his typically thundering style, has demanded that Massa and Alonso are stripped of their points.
"Both cars and both drivers should lose the points they achieved in the German Grand Prix," he said. "I will not make any recommendation, but on the facts at the moment there should have been some sporting sanction and not only a fine."


Freakin' Max, telling people what they want to hear...
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