The title fight thread

LionZoo · Post by **LionZoo** » 25 Oct 2010, 07:35

You guys must not like Juan Manuel Fangio very much either. Teams are teams. This entire "no team orders" rule is quite frankly a bit of a sham. Drivers are essentially paid to drive according to the instructions of the team. This includes when to pit, when to push, when to back off, and when to retire the car. Keep in mind that there isn't nearly the same amount of fervor raised when a driver is ordered to let another driver from a different team past. Yet they're not allowed to do the same action for their own teammates, the driver that they're supposed to be cooperating with the most in the paddock?

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 25 Oct 2010, 07:52

eagleash wrote:
Wizzie wrote:
In all fairness I can see the FIA excluding Ferrari as well giving Hamilton a 2nd world title (Not that I particually like the guy and all...)

But other then that you're pretty much on the right track. Are you Dr Who by any chance?

What are Ferrari to have done wrong in this fantasy scenario? (The Germany matter is closed).

My prediction was under the assumption that the Germany case would be reopened thanks to Jean trying unusually hard to shake the "Pro Ferrari" tag off the FIA... to be honest though I can't really see Red Bull being excluded for any possible team orders because the precident has already been set through Germany.

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 25 Oct 2010, 08:16

Wizzie wrote:
F1000X wrote:A prediction: Webber is going to win the final race in Abu Dhabi when Vettel is asked by Redbull to let him past for the key points to beat Alonso, only to have himself, or the entire team excluded from the championship, handing it to Alonso and Ferrari. This will then prompt the greatest forum war of all time over the inconsistency of stewardship, the legality of team orders, and the favoritism of Ferrari by the FIA. Many a thread will be locked, and temporary bans will be handed out.

Vettel in a display of complete disgust for his team will violate his contract with Redbull and sign with Ferrari, who gladly release Massa of his contract with a big payoff. Vettel will race the entire season in the midst of bitter legal dispute with Redbull, while Ferrari gleefully handle his legal fees. Vettel will be branded with the nickname Darth Vader by some, as critics agree his transfer from Redbull to Ferrari in a fit of anger is akin to Anakin Skywalker crossing over to the dark side.

Massa will join Webber at Redbull, where he will enjoy a massive surge in popularity now being freed of the Ferrari stigma.

Alonso will be anointed the true heir to Nelson Piquet's legacy by fulfilling his role as the undisputedly talented a**hole with 3 championships.

In all fairness I can see the FIA excluding Ferrari as well giving Hamilton a 2nd world title (Not that I particually like the guy and all...)

But other then that you're pretty much on the right track. Are you Dr Who by any chance?

Could be either Marty McFly or Dr Emmett L. Brown...

madmark1974 · Post by **madmark1974** » 25 Oct 2010, 09:28

The way I see it, if Alonso wins it, it'll be an inherited title, one won through almost passive driving as opposed to racing. Let me explain :

Many people still say that Jenson Button did not deserve to win last year's title, mostly as he has the best car, for at least 1/3 of the season. Whilst this is true,
when the car was not the best, he still raced and came through the field to maximise his points haul. Before last year I would have called Jenson a driver more than
a racer, but he pulled off some great drives and overtakes and got there in the end.

Who has Alonso overtaken on track this year? I can only think of a few backmarkers at Monaco, and Massagate, though there are probably others I've forgotten, but still,
if you take only the top 3 teams into account, how often has he finished ahead of the Red Bulls on merit? How often has he started behind, then finished ahead of Lewis
Hamilton (who has picked off at least one of the Red Bulls on occasions, and overtook Alonso at Canada at least)? The championship and results just seem to be coming
to him, rather than him having to win it through, let's face it, driving the way we expect him to, i.e. agressive, exciting racing.

Though I'm aware the same could be said of both Red Bull drivers to some extent, i.e. they just drive away from the field in the best car, at least they have a competitive
team mate who they have to beat over the weekend ...

thehemogoblin · Post by **thehemogoblin** » 25 Oct 2010, 10:27

I'd prefer it if Alonso had been able to catch Massa in Germany based on merit, but he will have earned his title in the end. It's frustrating, but it's not the end of the world.

eagleash · Post by **eagleash** » 25 Oct 2010, 10:33

Shrewd drivers; Prost, Stewart, Lauda, latterly (& to a lesser extent) Schumi & now (a more mature) Alonso, win titles. Multiple titles.
Chargers, by & large, don't.
Senna could combine the two qualities. As did Moss & Clark to a degree.

DonTirri · Post by **DonTirri** » 25 Oct 2010, 13:33

eagleash wrote:Shrewd drivers; Prost, Stewart, Lauda, latterly (& to a lesser extent) Schumi & now (a more mature) Alonso, win titles. Multiple titles.
Chargers, by & large, don't.
Senna could combine the two qualities. As did Moss & Clark to a degree.

I have to agree here. Though I'd say the most prominent charger in the last 20 or so years outside Senna, that being Räikkönen, was strung with the worst luck ever with the ticking timebombs known as McLaren-Mercedes'. I reckon that he could be double or even triple champ had the cars not been so fragile. And Vettel is making a lot of ground towards having similar fate as Kimi, with mechanichal and technical woes hamstrungin his title challenge.

Funnily enough, Alonso is really starting to remind me of Piquet sr more and more, esp. if he wins a third title. A total prick who bosses around his teammates, gives a particular team their last titles, with the team dropping out of title contention after he leaves, switches to a top team and becomes a title challenger again.

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 25 Oct 2010, 15:30

DonTirri wrote:I have to agree here. Though I'd say the most prominent charger in the last 20 or so years outside Senna, that being Räikkönen, was strung with the worst luck ever with the ticking timebombs known as McLaren-Mercedes'. I reckon that he could be double or even triple champ had the cars not been so fragile. And Vettel is making a lot of ground towards having similar fate as Kimi, with mechanichal and technical woes hamstrungin his title challenge.

And I have to agree with this - although I personally don't see in Vettel the amount of talent I often saw in Kimi. There is a common denominator between the situations - the man behind the McLaren and Red Bull timed-bombs. Which beggars the question of just how overrated Adrian Newey really is.

muttley · Post by **muttley** » 25 Oct 2010, 15:56

DonTirri wrote:Funnily enough, Alonso is really starting to remind me of Piquet sr more and more, esp. if he wins a third title. A total prick who bosses around his teammates, gives a particular team their last titles, with the team dropping out of title contention after he leaves, switches to a top team and becomes a title challenger again.

Well, that's mostly wishful thinking from you. Ferrari won the title in 2007, come very close to winning it in 2008, and if Alonso wins it this year, will be the only team having 3 different drivers coming close to winning (or winning) the WDC in four years. Not really the prototype of a crappy team relying on one single talented driver, is it?

James1978 · Post by **James1978** » 25 Oct 2010, 17:02

I'm sick to death of all this "Alonso won't deserve the championship becuase of team orders" stuff. I'll admit it I haven't liked him at all since 2007, and don't want him to win this title, but there are loads of previous champions who were helped by their teammates, and so for me, it's an accepted practice.

Did anyone begrudge Alain Prost the 1986 title becuase Keke was helping him, beating Mansell and Piquet who were fighting each other? Course not.

Anyone think Senna was undeserving of the 1991 championship becuase Berger was riding shotgun for him most of the time (when they were fighting with Williams)?

What about Frentzen letting through Villeneuve in the early stages at Jerez 1997 so he could chase after Schumacher?

Did Mika Hakkinen not deserve the 1998 championship becuase DC let him through at Melbourne (and didn't challenge him in the closing stages at Hockenheim)?

Also I don't think anyone (apart from Rubens) had a problem with him letting Schumacher through at the end of Austria 2001 (NOT 2002), as Schumacher was in a close fight with DC at the time, plus the Williams was very quick too, if unreliable at that stage of the season. (That one is the closet example I can think of to Germany this year with the stage of the season etc, only it wasn't for a win).

Myrvold · Post by **Myrvold** » 25 Oct 2010, 18:56

Erhm, it was legal then.

If Alonso wins this championship with LESS than 7 points, I don't feel he deserves it. And, with the way the public reactions were after Germany. Domenicali managed to tell BBC that he thinks everyone will applaud Alonso if he wins with less than 7 points, yuk!

Jordan192 · Post by **Jordan192** » 25 Oct 2010, 19:12

What about Webber? On recent form It's perfectly possible he's not going to be topping any more Red Bull 1-2s this year purely on pace, and given that 2 VET/WEB/ALO finishes is Alonso's title, There's a fairly decent chance that the only way Webber's going to take it is going to involve Vettel letting him past on at least one occasion.

My dismay at the Germany incident wasn't about the concept of team orders per se, but about 3 side factors

a) Team orders at a point in the season where most felt it was premature (This one didn't particularly bother me as Massa was never a realistic contender, and the points were such that I could understand it, even though i thought it was pretty marginal)
b) YOUR DELIVERY OF THE ORDER WAS HAMFISTED AND OBVIOUS, AND THEREFORE PATRONISING THAT YOU DIDN'T THINK WE'D SEE THROUGH IT. CAN YOU CONFIRM YOU UNDERSTAND THIS MESSAGE?
c) Come on, Massa's the nicest guy in the sport, bascially, and it was a year on from an accident that literally came an inch and a half from killing him. Do you have no sense of narrative? Jebus.

But if it's just about the points, no-one's going to deserve it.

J Washburn Stoker · Post by **J Washburn Stoker** » 26 Oct 2010, 01:46

Jordan192 wrote:My dismay at the Germany incident wasn't about the concept of team orders per se, but about 3 side factors

a) Team orders at a point in the season where most felt it was premature (This one didn't particularly bother me as Massa was never a realistic contender, and the points were such that I could understand it, even though i thought it was pretty marginal)
b) YOUR DELIVERY OF THE ORDER WAS HAMFISTED AND OBVIOUS, AND THEREFORE PATRONISING THAT YOU DIDN'T THINK WE'D SEE THROUGH IT. CAN YOU CONFIRM YOU UNDERSTAND THIS MESSAGE?
c) Come on, Massa's the nicest guy in the sport, bascially, and it was a year on from an accident that literally came an inch and a half from killing him. Do you have no sense of narrative? Jebus.

Dare I offer this man a beer? I know I'm starting to bore on this issue - or at least, starting to bore Captain Hammer - but Alonso leading the WDC really does justify point (a). Point (b) was the main thing I hated about it, but I was equally offended when Ferrari claimed the barcode livery had nothing to do with Marlboro.

Myrvold · Post by **Myrvold** » 26 Oct 2010, 02:04

Oh, forgot that "a"... If Ferrari decides to use team-orders (a bit more "hidden") again, I don't think many will react, same with Button helping Hamilton, or if Helmut Marko is getting a heart-attack, Vettel helping Webber...

Collieafc · Post by **Collieafc** » 26 Oct 2010, 10:03

As much as I hate the guy, Alonso seems especially best placed now. BUT how many times has somebody made any sort of points lead this year, only for it to be flushed down the toilet? Its not over yet, as one start-line pile up or engine failure changes everything (And we have had a few this year)

If I had to pick someone I wanted to win, I would say Webber. Mainly as he at least semi-races and doesnt blame others for his own blunders (Korea being a very good example. Could you see Alonso or Button doing that?).

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 26 Oct 2010, 10:04

Collieafc wrote:If I had to pick someone I wanted to win, I would say Webber. Mainly as he at least semi-races and doesnt blame others for his own blunders (Korea being a very good example. Could you see Alonso or Button doing that?).

Alonso: No
Button: Maybe

Eryx · Post by **Eryx** » 27 Oct 2010, 11:25

Button hasnt made a mistake this season though...he was always the slowest of the 5 but the fact is who knows where he could be,Monaco a mechanics failure,Spa Vettels amteurism,Japan team nearly forgetting to bring him in,Korea swiped by Sutil and thats it. I want Webber to win now because he made a mistake put his hand upto it and moved on hopefully we wont see it again unlike Hamilton

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 28 Oct 2010, 17:49

Red Bull backing both drivers in Brazil

Really, Horner? Really you want to lose the titles like Williams did in 1986?

Salamander · Post by **Salamander** » 28 Oct 2010, 18:27

We have two fantastic drivers and we will continue to support both equally in line with Red Bull’s credible sporting ethos

Oh, please. As if you've had any since Turkey. I assume this is code for, "Well, Vettel can't win, so let's give up on 2010 and focus on next year."

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 28 Oct 2010, 18:33

BlindCaveSalamander wrote:"Well, Vettel can't win, so let's give up on 2010 and focus on next year."

If that's the case, they are utter retards.
Last time, BMW did this to Kubica in mid-2008 (France and onwards) and the next year they botched so big they quit...

Salamander · Post by **Salamander** » 28 Oct 2010, 18:37

Shizuka wrote:
BlindCaveSalamander wrote:"Well, Vettel can't win, so let's give up on 2010 and focus on next year."

If that's the case, they are utter retards.
Last time, BMW did this to Kubica in mid-2008 (France and onwards) and the next year they botched so big they quit...

Actually, Ferrari did that last year. But then again, they were never really in the title fight, and certainly not after Massa's accident.

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 28 Oct 2010, 18:44

Exactly, at least they had a REASON why to hang up 2009!

Post by **mario** » 28 Oct 2010, 19:18

Shizuka wrote:Red Bull backing both drivers in Brazil

Really, Horner? Really you want to lose the titles like Williams did in 1986?

Or perhaps Horner is being pressed from above to treat Vettel on an equal footing as Webber? After all, Mateschitz and Marko openly admire and support Vettel, and Horner has admitted that they are going to built the Red Bull team around Vettel in the future.

Secondly, remember the furore and angry headlines that there were in the summer in the wake of Turkey, where Red Bull announced that they were going to treat their drivers equally. It'd look awkward to publicly back Webber, and would make them look no better then Ferrari, who they repeatedly attacked for using team orders. For a team which is in the sport for advertising purposes, that could generate a lot of unwanted press headlines.

And I suppose that Horner has a difficult dilemma - mathematically, both drivers can win, and it is very do-able for both Webber and Vettel to win. It wouldn't take much for them to catch Alonso - an engine failure for Alonso or an accident which means that Alonso fails to score would put them ahead if they won. Even if Alonso scored, Mark or Vettel could still win - with Mclaren pushing on with development, Hamilton may be able to get ahead of Alonso, or at least disrupt him quite badly. Crucially, if Alonso was to fail to get a podium either here or in Abu Dhabi, both Red Bull drivers can win the title.

On the other hand, both Mclaren and Ferrari are now down to one driver, who is likely to get their full support (Massa was demoted to a 2nd driver by default, and Button, although wanting to fight on until mathematically out of contention, has said that he is prepared to back Hamilton for the sake of the team). Backing Webber, who is the one within much closer striking distance, would not be unexpected, and in days of old, many other teams would have done that.

Either way, I can see why Horner is acting the way he is - he is not in the easiest of situations here. Whether I necessarily agree with him is another matter...

Aerospeed · Post by **Aerospeed** » 02 Nov 2010, 21:27

Only Alonso can win the championship. He can do this if:
1st, with Webber no higher than 5th
2nd, with Webber no higher than 8th and without Vettel or Hamilton winning the race
3rd, with Webber not scoring and without Vettel or Hamilton finishing ahead of Alonso.

Only Red Bull can clinch the constructor's, with a 1-2. If McLaren gets a 3-4 in Brazil and a 1-2 in Abu Dhabi, Red Bull would win by countback.

Source

bighaydo · Post by **bighaydo** » 03 Nov 2010, 01:51

I just hope Red Bull are approaching this weekend with a 'Plan B'. If Vettel isn't in a strong enough position compared to Alonso, or if it is going to be a close run thing, they might need to throw the switch and back Mark mid-race. There would almost certainly be some attrition in the boardroom if they blow this one.

I wonder if Mark will prefer to be the hunter rather than the hunted... he looked a little uneasy in Korea, but when he gets his head down and goes for it he could produce another Spain/Britain performance (and hopefully he learned a little bit from Belgium about what to do when out of position).

If Alonso's engines last, it would be nothing short of a miracle (or validation of the application to make changes on 'safety' grounds earlier in the year...).

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 03 Nov 2010, 04:55

I'm going to be controversial here and say that I genuienly believe if Red Bull win either championship this year they will never be able to win a title... Seriously when was the last time a team tossed away such a carspeed advantage on such a regular basis?

Post by **mario** » 03 Nov 2010, 09:35

bighaydo wrote:I just hope Red Bull are approaching this weekend with a 'Plan B'. If Vettel isn't in a strong enough position compared to Alonso, or if it is going to be a close run thing, they might need to throw the switch and back Mark mid-race. There would almost certainly be some attrition in the boardroom if they blow this one.

I wonder if Mark will prefer to be the hunter rather than the hunted... he looked a little uneasy in Korea, but when he gets his head down and goes for it he could produce another Spain/Britain performance (and hopefully he learned a little bit from Belgium about what to do when out of position).

If Alonso's engines last, it would be nothing short of a miracle (or validation of the application to make changes on 'safety' grounds earlier in the year...).

The change was made under the current reliability upgrade system, not safety (and, for once, this really was about reliability and not a roundabout way of eking out more power).

As for Alonso's engines, Ferrari should be able to do it, although they are a bit tight on engine mileage, and having to re-use their Monza engine for longer than anticipated.
Look at Sauber, who had even more problems, and they have managed to stave off using a fresh engine since they used a 9th unit for De La Rosa about five races back (and Kobayashi is still within his allocation of eight engines). The question is, what sort of performance hit they'll take - Heidfeld has said that he is struggling to keep up with Kobayashi because his engines are so worn out, which would explain why Heidfeld is notably slower on the straights compared to Kobayashi. (The implication being that Sauber have had to turn the wick drastically down on what were left of De La Rosa's engines to make them last the season).

bighaydo · Post by **bighaydo** » 03 Nov 2010, 10:55

mario wrote:The change was made under the current reliability upgrade system, not safety (and, for once, this really was about reliability and not a roundabout way of eking out more power).

Whoops - I glanced at something about that a while back and must have got it mixed up with something else... :oops:

Should be interesting to see what happens this weekend though, given that Interlagos is a short lap the field spread won't be as much. Anyone not running a strong engine must be sweating the fact that the major overtaking spot is after a long straight run that starts by running up a hill...

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 03 Nov 2010, 10:58

bighaydo wrote:
mario wrote:The change was made under the current reliability upgrade system, not safety (and, for once, this really was about reliability and not a roundabout way of eking out more power).

Whoops - I glanced at something about that a while back and must have got it mixed up with something else...

Should be interesting to see what happens this weekend though, given that Interlagos is a short lap the field spread won't be as much. Anyone not running a strong engine must be sweating the fact that the major overtaking spot is after a long straight run that starts by running up a hill...

I don't think power would be such an issue here with the atltitude reducing power output by about 10% anyway (Well 8% according to Renault anyway). And less air does mean less stress on engine componenents.

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 04 Nov 2010, 17:14

Wizzie wrote:I'm going to be controversial here and say that I genuienly believe if Red Bull win either championship this year they will never be able to win a title... Seriously when was the last time a team tossed away such a carspeed advantage on such a regular basis?

BMW c. 2008?

FullMetalJack · Post by **FullMetalJack** » 04 Nov 2010, 18:41

I've got to admire Button for still fighting for the championship although it's almost certain he won't. But anything can happen in Formula 1, and it usually does.

Bleu · Post by **Bleu** » 06 Nov 2010, 07:57

If Button wins both Interlagos and Abu Dhabi, here's the best what others can do:

Alonso: 7th and 10th
Webber: 2nd and DNF
Hamilton: 3rd and 4th
Vettel: 2nd and 3rd

Button 239 (4 wins)
Vettel 239 (3 wins)
Alonso 238 (5 wins)
Webber 238 (4 wins)
Hamilton 237 (3 wins)

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 07 Nov 2010, 09:08

Bleu wrote:If Button wins both Interlagos and Abu Dhabi, here's the best what others can do:

Alonso: 7th and 10th
Webber: 2nd and DNF
Hamilton: 3rd and 4th
Vettel: 2nd and 3rd

Button 239 (4 wins)
Vettel 239 (3 wins)
Alonso 238 (5 wins)
Webber 238 (4 wins)
Hamilton 237 (3 wins)

If that happens it would be simply epic.

EDIT: I will give someone an imaginary beer if anyone can get a top 5 which is closer than that.

pablo_h · Post by **pablo_h** » 07 Nov 2010, 10:40

Wizzie wrote:I'm going to be controversial here and say that I genuienly believe if Red Bull win either championship this year they will never be able to win a title... Seriously when was the last time a team tossed away such a carspeed advantage on such a regular basis?

neither?

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 07 Nov 2010, 10:46

pablo_h wrote:
Wizzie wrote:I'm going to be controversial here and say that I genuienly believe if Red Bull win either championship this year they will never be able to win a title... Seriously when was the last time a team tossed away such a carspeed advantage on such a regular basis?

neither?

Meh. For a natural English speaker I'm not that great. :oops:

Salamander · Post by **Salamander** » 07 Nov 2010, 18:00

As it stands, Webber needs to win with Alonso 3rd or worse to take the title, while Vettel needs to win with Alonso 5th or worse to take the title on countback (he would win by having 3 4th place finishes to Alonso's 2). Given his form, you'd be quite brave to bet on Alonso finishing off the podium in Abu Dhabi, so I'd say the smart thing to do would be to back Webber and have Vettel act as rear gunner, but I just can't see Mateschitz, Marko, et al, not backing Vettel. As such, I think Alonso's going to take the title, but it'll be more Red Bull throwing it away than him winning it at this stage.

QuickYoda41 · Post by **QuickYoda41** » 07 Nov 2010, 18:35

This is the very first year with 4 drivers going to the last race with mathematical chance for the title, isn't it?

thehemogoblin · Post by **thehemogoblin** » 07 Nov 2010, 18:36

Wizzie wrote:
pablo_h wrote:
Wizzie wrote:I'm going to be controversial here and say that I genuienly believe if Red Bull win either championship this year they will never be able to win a title... Seriously when was the last time a team tossed away such a carspeed advantage on such a regular basis?

neither?

Meh. For a natural English speaker I'm not that great.

Tell that to your comma splice.

LionZoo · Post by **LionZoo** » 07 Nov 2010, 19:23

If you want drama, imagine a scenario where Vettel is first, Webber second, and Alonso third with a few laps remaining in Abu Dhabi. In order to bring the driver's championship home, Red Bull reluctantly has Vettel switch positions with Webber. Then, two laps from the end Alonso's engine blows up which results in Helmut Marko frantically trying to order Webber to cede the position back to Vettel, which Webber ignores. The race and (most exciting) season (ever) ends with a brawl on the podium between Vettel, Webber, Marko, and Horner.

Henrique · Post by **Henrique** » 07 Nov 2010, 19:30

LionZoo wrote:If you want drama, imagine a scenario where Vettel is first, Webber second, and Alonso third with a few laps remaining in Abu Dhabi. In order to bring the driver's championship home, Red Bull reluctantly has Vettel switch positions with Webber. Then, two laps from the end Alonso's engine blows up which results in Helmut Marko frantically trying to order Webber to cede the position back to Vettel, which Webber ignores. The race and (most exciting) season (ever) ends with a brawl on the podium between Vettel, Webber, Marko, and Horner.

Dude