Phoenix wrote:Why is everybody taking as granted that Group Lotus Renault will be competitive enough to win races next year? Anyway, I expect a swag of points if the car is good, but I fear that still, no wins.
I think that everybody is assuming that the R31 will be a race winner because a) Kubica racked up a fastest lap in the first test and b) the assumption that the front blown floor will work from the off, and provide a big performance advantage.
The problem is, given the amount of variables during testing (fuel loads, tyre compound and relative wear, variations in track conditions, how hard the drivers are pushing, whether the KERS is fully operational etc.), the fastest times, whilst always published, are effectively useless. OK, longer runs are perhaps a better guide, as we can look for more general trends, but even this can be misleading - especially if a team is running underweight (i.e. the former Prost team), or non race legal parts (such as the F60's and the external exhaust pipes, which had to be covered up later on ahead of scrutineering at the first race).
The other problem with the front blown floor is, firstly, how much of a performance gain you get. At the moment, there is still a fair amount of debate over what Renault are trying to do exactly - some, like scarbsf1, suggest that the exhausts blow air under the floor to accelerate the airflow and increase the effectiveness of the floor. Others have suggested, since the exhausts seem to blow onto the leading edge of the floor, that the airflow may act to seal the edge of the floor to reduce air leakage at the side, or blow across the top of the floor to improve airflow on the upper surface and over the bodywork of the car.
Either way, the question of how much additional performance it gives is questionable. Nick Wirth, for example, said that he had considered the same option as Renault, but decided that the performance gain was too small compared to the cost of redesigning the car to fit around that concept. If it does work properly, I can imagine that there is likely to be a noticeable benefit - but whether that would be enough to overcome the likely deficit to the RB7 (which is an evolution of the the RB5 and RB6 cars, both of which were very competitive) is another matter.
When he gets it right, Newey is a tough man to outsmart (even if he has had a few misfiring efforts along the way): it'll be hard to match the RB7 on pure pace, especially with two very fired up drivers in the cockpit.