Grand Prix Rejects

Sebastian Vettel ended the year clinching the WDC and adding one more record for an already impressive CV. There are critics of the German youngster, which he certainly fed those with his mistakes, but he sure left the Stefan Bellof category. Only the future will tell how high will Vettel reach, but IMHO this is the first of his WDCs.

I don't believe he will steamroll the opposition and break all the records owned by Michael Schumacher because his opposition are not a bunch of deadbeat overrated drivers or fledging talents, in specific he has formidable adversaries like Hamilton, Alonso and who knows Kubica. However, I can easily see him reaching the 50 victories milestone and adding at least two more WDC trophies to his collection.

Any more guesses to his future achievements?

Personally, I see Vettel winning at least one more title, probably 2, and reaching about 30-40 total wins. If Kubica doesn't get in a top flight car for more than 1 or 2 seasons, I'd expect even more, since I believe the next several years will be largely contested between Vettel, Kubica and Hamilton.

Considering how tight F1 is this days, I'd say he can win another championship and end up with 30 victories, but unlikely that he'll go beyond that.

At that age, he's still development material. So yes, I think he has plenty of championships ahead of him, because he can only get better.

He will win maybe one or two more, as there is Button Hamilton Alonso maybe Webber Kubica and some youngsters coming through its much tougher to win more then 6 races a season now, unlike the schumacher era

Did it strike anyone else when they read the topic for this thread that "first of many" is also a direct quote of what the McLaren pitcrew told Heikki Kovalainen after his victory in Budapest?

As for Vettel: I'm sure he has the talent to add another (or even two or three) titles. But so do Hamilton, Button, Kubica, Alonso and perhaps Massa.

I see the next 3 years as a fantastic battle between the "old" generation and the new one, with Alonso, maybe Button on form, fighting Rosberg, Hamilton and Vettel. Then, when Alonso retires, it´s going to be an epic battle between Hamilton and Vettel for several years. Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Aerond wrote:Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Kubica? Sutil if he gets a competitive car?

Wizzie wrote:

Aerond wrote:Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Kubica? Sutil if he gets a competitive car?

I thought of them.

Wizzie wrote:Kubica? Sutil if he gets a competitive car?

You've forgotten Kobayashi!

Wizzie wrote:

Aerond wrote:Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Kubica? Sutil if he gets a competitive car?

Or new drivers. Remember how quickly Hamilton and Vettel have established themselves.

Aerond wrote:Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Barrichello and the rebound of Williams ... What? I like pipe dreams.

Klon wrote:

Aerond wrote:Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Barrichello and the rebound of Williams ... What? I like pipe dreams.

Rubens in a Williams-Renault?

Shizuka wrote:

Klon wrote:

Aerond wrote:Maybe with one or two extra unforeseen contenders.

Barrichello and the rebound of Williams ... What? I like pipe dreams.

Rubens in a Williams-Renault?

Dear HWNSNBM, can this happen please? Amen.

P_Friesacher wrote:Did it strike anyone else when they read the topic for this thread that "first of many" is also a direct quote of what the McLaren pitcrew told Heikki Kovalainen after his victory in Budapest?

Yes, and very much so. He himself did believe it at the time. Here's hoping that Heikki will win again - even in F1.

Vettel? His performances will get more mature and that will make him win more points and races. So he does indeed have a solid chance at defending his title.

rffp wrote:Sebastian Vettel ended the year clinching the WDC and adding one more record for an already impressive CV. There are critics of the German youngster, which he certainly fed those with his mistakes, but he sure left the Stefan Bellof category. Only the future will tell how high will Vettel reach, but IMHO this is the first of his WDCs.

I don't believe he will steamroll the opposition and break all the records owned by Michael Schumacher because his opposition are not a bunch of deadbeat overrated drivers or fledging talents, in specific he has formidable adversaries like Hamilton, Alonso and who knows Kubica. However, I can easily see him reaching the 50 victories milestone and adding at least two more WDC trophies to his collection.

Any more guesses to his future achievements?

Whilst Vettel might have taken the title this year, there are quite a few potential hurdles in the way. For a start, there is no guarantee that the RB7 will be as competitive as the RB6, as there are a number of changes being made next year. The new Pirelli tyres could give Red Bull set up problems, although the mandatory weight distribution might help things a bit (although the aero balance is not mandated, and at speed that will have a greater effect). On top of that, the Mercedes powered teams will have access to what was clearly the best KERS system in 2009, which could well be worth a few tenths of a second over whatever system Red Bull opts for (or may not go for, depending on what they decide to do).
There are many examples in the past where a team has been successful the previous year only to be hamstrung the next - Ferrari in 2005, after the changes to the tyre regulations left Bridgestone high and dry, or Renault in 2007 after their wind tunnel problems (rumoured to have been caused by a slightly raised tile, only protruding a few mm out of line, disrupted the airflow over the car and corrupted the results of the aero tests).

In theory, too, the Resource Restriction Agreement, although watered down a bit recently, should still have an impact. Despite Horner's recent posturing, Red Bull are by no means a small team - in fact, Auto Motor Und Sport has suggested that they have the second biggest workforce and budget after Ferrari. Having to reduce numbers could clip their competitiveness - it didn't help Mercedes GP, although the W01 has a whole host of other issues.

In addition, the current crop of competitive teams and drivers is quite wide. Over at Ferrari, Alonso is a formidable competitor, whatever his and Ferrari's shortcomings, whilst at Mclaren, Hamilton and Button can put in some very strong showings too. Kubica can get himself right in the mix when he has the right car beneath him, and is, moreover, very consistent, and although he hasn't always had a decent car, Roberg has shown that on occasion he can crop up unexpectedly high up the field. And although Vettel is quite youthful, it isn't as if his rivals are at the end of their careers, so Vettel will face a cluster of experienced and quick rivals for several years yet, all of whom could potentially take the title in the right conditions.

So, will Vettel win more races? With a decent car, yes, as he is quick enough. Can he win more titles? That will depend on whether he has a competitive car for an entire season (see Arnoux in 1983, where slow development by Renault handed the title to Brabham's Piquet Sr.). He has the potential raw speed to do so, but needs to sharpen up his race craft quite a bit and hope that Newey can keep turning out good cars (Newey has turned out a few dud cars at times - and, with the MP4/18, failed to turn a car out at all, forcing Mclaren to stick with the MP4/17).

At the age Vettel is now, certain Michael Schumacher had not won F1 race yet. Of course he had done far less races, in fact we would be around Canadian GP 1992, which was 13th race for Michael.

mario wrote: And although Vettel is quite youthful, it isn't as if his rivals are at the end of their careers, so Vettel will face a cluster of experienced and quick rivals for several years yet, all of whom could potentially take the title in the right conditions.

Not to mention the fact that there will probably be new talents coming in all the time, who are going to be younger than Vettel.

The problem we have now is drivers like Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso and Raikkonen(!) are supposed to be winning "many" championships, drivers like Kubica, Rosberg, Massa, Button, Webber, Kobayashi and Schumacher(!) are supposed to be potential title contenders in future, theres just not enough titles to go around!

Vettel looks to be the title favorite for 2011 at least, but in things F1 can turn around very very fast. Look at Honda -> Brawn -> MGP, look at Jacques Villeneuve! Looking beyond 2011 is somewhat foolish, RBR came from midfield also rans to front runners to champions in three years, perennial front runners Williams did the reverse.

I don't want to put a downer on Seb's championship (he deserved it IMO) but all he has proven so far is that he can win the title with the fastest car, and that is no guarantee of future success.

mario wrote: (Newey has turned out a few dud cars at times - and, with the MP4/18, failed to turn a car out at all, forcing Mclaren to stick with the MP4/17)

The MP4/18 unraced in 2003, which got named MP4/19 in 2004 and it's only B version was actually good enough to become a potential race winner?
The car did look good, but it was fragile inside, especially Mercedes Ilmor's engine. Like, how many retirements did McLaren have in the first half of the season? At least 8. And Kimi had like 5 of it.

Shizuka wrote:

mario wrote: (Newey has turned out a few dud cars at times - and, with the MP4/18, failed to turn a car out at all, forcing Mclaren to stick with the MP4/17)

The MP4/18 unraced in 2003, which got named MP4/19 in 2004 and it's only B version was actually good enough to become a potential race winner?
The car did look good, but it was fragile inside, especially Mercedes Ilmor's engine. Like, how many retirements did McLaren have in the first half of the season? At least 8. And Kimi had like 5 of it.

"LIKE"?

Apart from the age, I can see similarities between Vettel's career and Schumacher's.
Both started their careers around mid-season, before changing teams immediately for their next race.
Both won their first race in their first full season, with that win being their only win of the year.
Both won their first championship on the last race, 3 seasons after their debut.

Coincidence? Maybe...

eagleash wrote:

Shizuka wrote:

mario wrote: (Newey has turned out a few dud cars at times - and, with the MP4/18, failed to turn a car out at all, forcing Mclaren to stick with the MP4/17)

The MP4/18 unraced in 2003, which got named MP4/19 in 2004 and it's only B version was actually good enough to become a potential race winner?
The car did look good, but it was fragile inside, especially Mercedes Ilmor's engine. Like, how many retirements did McLaren have in the first half of the season? At least 8. And Kimi had like 5 of it.

"LIKE"?

I haz broken English, yes? Sometimes I really do. I didn't mean it in a negative way towards McLaren.

Well, I found lots more similarities between Villeneuve and Hamilton, that went to ***** this year

And to quote from a tv-series "I don't belive in coincidences!"

tommykl wrote:Apart from the age, I can see similarities between Vettel's career and Schumacher's.
Both started their careers around mid-season, before changing teams immediately for their next race.
Both won their first race in their first full season, with that win being their only win of the year.
Both won their first championship on the last race, 3 seasons after their debut.

Coincidence? Maybe...

both won their titles in a team who,despire having had changed owners were in their 13th season and had the number 5 on the car

Ok, THAT was freaky!

WeirdKerr wrote:

tommykl wrote:Apart from the age, I can see similarities between Vettel's career and Schumacher's.
Both started their careers around mid-season, before changing teams immediately for their next race.
Both won their first race in their first full season, with that win being their only win of the year.
Both won their first championship on the last race, 3 seasons after their debut.

Coincidence? Maybe...

both won their titles in a team who,despire having had changed owners were in their 13th season and had the number 5 on the car

So, this means Vettel will defend his title next year... but it will go off as Red Bull will NOT change engine supporters next season!

Shizuka wrote:

WeirdKerr wrote:

tommykl wrote:Apart from the age, I can see similarities between Vettel's career and Schumacher's.
Both started their careers around mid-season, before changing teams immediately for their next race.
Both won their first race in their first full season, with that win being their only win of the year.
Both won their first championship on the last race, 3 seasons after their debut.

Coincidence? Maybe...

both won their titles in a team who,despire having had changed owners were in their 13th season and had the number 5 on the car

So, this means Vettel will defend his title next year... but it will go off as Red Bull will NOT change engine supporters next season!

So supposedly after next season he'll leave for a team that's in trouble and will lead them back to the top...

Vettel to replace Barrichello in 2012 and bring Williams back to the top. You heard it here first.

tommykl wrote:Both won their first race in their first full season, with that win being their only win of the year.

And as an added thing both their first wins were in wet conditions (Well in Schumacher's case changeable conditions but you get the picture)

Wizzie wrote:So supposedly after next season he'll leave for a team that's in trouble and will lead them back to the top...

Vettel to replace Barrichello in 2012 and bring Williams back to the top. You heard it here first.

I doubt it'll happen, but I like the sound of it. Now all we need is another Eddie Irvine. *looks around*

Shizuka wrote:

mario wrote: (Newey has turned out a few dud cars at times - and, with the MP4/18, failed to turn a car out at all, forcing Mclaren to stick with the MP4/17)

The MP4/18 unraced in 2003, which got named MP4/19 in 2004 and it's only B version was actually good enough to become a potential race winner?
The car did look good, but it was fragile inside, especially Mercedes Ilmor's engine. Like, how many retirements did McLaren have in the first half of the season? At least 8. And Kimi had like 5 of it.

The MP4/19 was a modified MP4/18, I'll grant you, although there were quite a few substantial changes beneath the skin between the two. In particular, there were major changes to the engine and oil cooling (as the MP4/18 suffered more than once from heat build up issues during testing), in part because of flaws with the Mercedes-Ilmor engine. I believe that there were also quite a few big changes to the design of the exhausts and diffuser (Newey was said to have been toying with the idea of blowing the diffuser, but Mercedes-Ilmor dissented due to problems with the exhaust configuration).