Whoever's immediately behind Raikkonen after any grid penalties (known and unknown) are issued. I can see him forgetting that he hasn't had KERS, making a lousy start and catching out the driver behind him. At the moment, that would be Sebastién Buemi.
Raikkonen will make it as far as the pits before retiring himself, passing Kovalainen's broken car on the way there. The "electrical" problem on the McLaren will be due to Nakajima sticking a front-left Bridgestone through a critical sensor or something (and taking off a corner of the McLaren simultaneously) but Kazuki will finish the race in a rather sheepish 12th place or so.
Sadly, I think what will happen is that both Force Indias will finish with their drivers kind of wishing they hadn't bothered turning up for the weekend
