2012 comment: Webber's best chance yet?

[eytl]

Hi everyone,

Time for another 2012 opinion piece.

Maybe I'm still in a daze from Mark Webber's Silverstone victory. Maybe I need a pick-me-up after the Aussie cricketers got belted 4-0 by the Poms in a five match ODI series. Maybe I've given up hope of Cadel Evans being able to overhaul Bradley Wiggins in the Tour de France. Maybe I'm just bracing myself for hearing "God Save the Queen" so much more than "Advance Australia Fair" in London in the coming weeks.

But I've decided that I can dare to dream aloud that maybe 2012 might be Mark Webber's best chance at a championship yet - even better than 2010. And I think I even have reasons to back that up. Or maybe it's just all rambling, biased hogwash. You have a read and decide for yourself, and aim some papayas my way.

http://www.f1rejects.com/centrale/2012/webber/index.html

Now watch him blow up in a cloud of smoke at Hockenheim.

Cheers,
Enoch

[dr-baker]

I hope that Mark has a genuine chance this year. If neither McLaren driver can do it (and at this point in the season, it does not look too promising), I will be supporting Mark all the way!

[Londoner]

Consistancy is definitely the key to the title this season, so it's gonna be between Alonso, Webber and Vettel realistically. McLaren must be kicking themselves for cocking around when their car was by far the best package, which has cost them dearly now that they've gone off the boil and everyone else has caught up. Mercedes are too inconsistant to mount a challenge with either driver, and Lotus seem to lack the killer instinct which would see them right up there, which is a shame considering Raikkonen has been very consistant throughout the season, and Grosjean is really coming into his own.

And yes, you've posted this article on Friday the 13th, which means you've almost certainly cursed Mark Webber.

[FullMetalJack]

Consistancy is definitely the key to the title this season, so it's gonna be between Alonso, Webber and Vettel realistically. McLaren must be kicking themselves for cocking around when their car was by far the best package, which has cost them dearly now that they've gone off the boil and everyone else has caught up. Mercedes are too inconsistant to mount a challenge with either driver, and Lotus seem to lack the killer instinct which would see them right up there, which is a shame considering Raikkonen has been very consistant throughout the season, and Grosjean is really coming into his own.

And yes, you've posted this article on Friday the 13th, which means you've almost certainly cursed Mark Webber.

Friday the 13th was always Mark Webber day, up until this year at least. It's now Michael Schumacher day.

I really hope Webber can claim the title this year, it's great that he's got this second chance, now it's time to take it.

[AdrianSutil]

Consistency is going to win the title. Simple as that. Alonso and Webber are the two who have been doing it the best, so it's no surprise to see them 1st and 2nd. My only worry is RedBull continue to support their favourite son more than Webber as the year goes on. Retirement for Webber and a win for Vettel at Germany will put Vettel ahead and I fear that would be it for Webber. I hope not, I'd love to see Mark win the title.

[DOSBoot]

And yes, you've posted this article on Friday the 13th, which means you've almost certainly cursed Mark Webber.

Then I uncurse the curse. Nice article. I'm really praying that he can win a drivers championship sometime in his career. This may be his best, if not, last shot at a world championship. To me, he's already proven that he's one of the best drivers around, and a world championship would be a deserved gift for someone who has gone through so much bad luck for so many years. As said before, consistency is the key, and in a season like this, that statement couldn't be more true. It worked for Prost in 86, it worked for Rosberg in 82, it worked for Piquet in 87, and maybe, just maybe, it might work for Webber in 12. Let's hope it becomes a reality.

[Nuppiz]

Webber is my favorite for the title, I couldn't stand Alonso or Vettel taking another one. He's got what it takes to win the title this season: concistency.

[mario]

Consistency is going to win the title. Simple as that. Alonso and Webber are the two who have been doing it the best, so it's no surprise to see them 1st and 2nd. My only worry is RedBull continue to support their favourite son more than Webber as the year goes on. Retirement for Webber and a win for Vettel at Germany will put Vettel ahead and I fear that would be it for Webber. I hope not, I'd love to see Mark win the title.

There will probably still be some bias within the team towards Vettel, but with Webber's relationship with Red Bull's senior management improving, he may be able to rally the team behind him in a way that he could not do in 2010 should Vettel fall further back.

At the same time, I would urge a slight note of caution - it is true that Webber currently sits in a quite strong position in the WDC, having won at what are arguably two of his strongest tracks (Monaco and Silverstone), and it has to be said that Vettel seems to have occasionally let the pressure of his home race get to him in the past few years (take his uncharacteristically scruffy performance last year, where his 4th placed finish marked his lowest finish that season).

At the same time, Webber's fortunes are somewhat out of his hands at the moment: with consistency being the most important thing this year, Alonso's consistency - the only driver to score points in every race this season, and the most podium finishes this season - will be tough to beat, especially with the F2012 looking like an ever stronger package. Massa's recently improved form could also start becoming an issue for Webber too if Massa can start getting himself between Webber and Alonso, and then there are questions over whether McLaren's major upgrade package will thrust the team back into contention.
Finally, there is Vettel himself: there are several tracks coming up soon where he has performed strongly in the past, so Webber will soon face a period in which he'll be having to defend his points lead from Vettel as much as he may be looking forward and hoping to catch Alonso. It wouldn't take much of a swing in performance for Webber's lead to vanish - Vettel would only need to gain a few points per race over Webber in the next few races to be level with him again - so the threat from within is as tough as that from without.

All in all, whilst this season does represent a good chance for Webber to win the WDC, at the same time it is very finely poised right now - with Alonso holding a slim lead, and Vettel only a little way behind (with Hamilton, albeit with lengthening odds, potentially not out of the fight if McLaren can pull something off), these next few races are going to be crucial for Webber if he wants to take the initiative.

[tzerof1]

Like always, a fascinating read, so thanks for that. Now one thing I was wondering about: in the history of the World Championship, has there been a driver who won their first championship in their tenth year in the sport? I know Jenson Button came close in 2009, in his ninth year, but I'm drawing a blank otherwise. Also, I can't wait to read your upcoming piece on Jungle Boy.

[UncreativeUsername37]

Has there been a driver who won their first championship in their tenth year in the sport?

Mario Andretti. He competed from 1968-1972 and '74-'82, winning the championship in '78.

[tzerof1]

Has there been a driver who won their first championship in their tenth year in the sport?

Mario Andretti. He competed from 1968-1972 and '74-'82, winning the championship in '78.

Very true. It's a shame that his stint in '82 had to be in such tragic circumstances. He sure did rack up the years though, and not everyone can say that they got to drive for Ferrari and Lotus twice. [Insert pun about Michael not being able to do anything in F1 here ]

[tommykl]

Actually, Andretti did it in his 11th year, Button in his tenth. This is Webber's 11th season in F1

Oh, and Mansell won in his 13th season.

[Shizuka]

Has there been a driver who won their first championship in their tenth year in the sport? I know Jenson Button came close in 2009, in his ninth year, but I'm drawing a blank otherwise.

Button was in his tenth season in 2009, he debuted in 2000.

Also, I found this article impressive. I hope Webber can pull it off, he deserves it!

[tzerof1]

Has there been a driver who won their first championship in their tenth year in the sport? I know Jenson Button came close in 2009, in his ninth year, but I'm drawing a blank otherwise.

Button was in his tenth season in 2009, he debuted in 2000.

Yes, tenth season, but I was just counting the years. Because what had originally got me going on this line of though was "How many years has ol' Mark been around for...well let's see, he debuted for Minardi in 2002, so...this will be his 10th year in the sport." And, as tommykl has said, this would be his 11th season therefore as well, now that we're on that subject.

[Rusujuur]

Better Webber than Alonso but I am still hoping for a 5-7 driver shootout in the end. It has been such a good start to the season, it should not end as a two way. Let's hope Lotus and McLaren can get their act together and pull back into the race.

[Ferrim]

I believe Alonso has been the most deserving one so far, but I would love to see Mark taking it, if only because I would have to remove him from my parallel championship

Other drivers who only had one shot at the title: Barrichello (2009), Kubica (2008), Montoya (2003). For the sake of it, I've defined "having a shot" as being in contention with two races to go, like the guys in Enoch's list. I thought there had to be someone, but I'm struggling to find anyone who was in contention twice and never won it, the closest example being Massa who still had a chance with three races to go, in 2007. Mansell failed thrice (1986, 1987 and 1991) but won it in the end...

[tommykl]

Moss was probably in contention at least three times, but is regarded as one of the best of his era, so I don't think it really counts.

[Sunshine_Baby_[IT]]

I hope that Mark has a genuine chance this year. If neither McLaren driver can do it (and at this point in the season, it does not look too promising), I will be supporting Mark all the way!

It seems that he really can fight for the championship this season.
If I had to choose to support Alonso or Webber, I'll sure support Webber.

[QuickYoda41]

I think Webber will do great until someone tells him he actually has a chance to be the champion. I'm afraid this year's champ will be Alonso, although I really hope I'm wrong.

[DanielPT]

I am afraid Mark's championship hopes are now jinxed!

[Peter]

I'll be honest, Alonso deserves it the most. A 3rd championship for Alonso has been long overdue, 2007 probably should've been his had he not been in a team which wanted Hamilton to beat him more than anything else, and 2010 too, had Ferrari not gotten strategy critically wrong.

Webber is a nice guy, though, he deserves some glory, especially after the rough, and unlucky career he has had, and in the shadow of his teammate as of recent.

[Boomstick]

.....and now he has a 5 place penalty due to a duff gearbox....thanks guys!

[mario]

.....and now he has a 5 place penalty due to a duff gearbox....thanks guys!

Compared to what has happened to Grosjean and Rosberg (20th and 22nd), Webber is at least still within the top 10 and would probably consider himself reasonably satisfied with where he'll line up, although the big question will be whether the McLaren duo and their updated cars will be able to hold him off tomorrow.

[Peter]

It's funny how ever since this article was posted, Webber has been performing poorly. Bad Luck Mark strikes again.

[mario]

It's funny how ever since this article was posted, Webber has been performing poorly. Bad Luck Mark strikes again.

To be fair, Hockenheim has been one of Mark's weaker tracks for some time now and although he has tended to do OK in Hungary, those differential problems he suffered during the race hindered his performance (according to Horner, Webber's differential problem lead to excessive wheelspin of his inside tyre when applying the throttle, causing excessive tyre wear and forcing him into that extra stop). He still does have a very slender lead over Vettel - 2 points - but with Alonso, much to his surprise, pulling away from Webber, and with Hamilton and Kimi potentially moving into contention, Webber is in a vulnerable position and needs a very strong result in Spa.

[DOSBoot]

Still, this deserves a big "Whhhhyyy" to Jamie and Enoch.

[FullMetalJack]

Still, this deserves a big "Whhhhyyy" to Jamie and Enoch.

This. Over 9000 times this.

I still do love Orange Soda.