What If?

[Bleu]

What if Ayrton Senna had agreed with Sid Watkins in Imola 1994 and they both would have left the sport and gone fishing?

[mario]

What if Ayrton Senna had agreed with Sid Watkins in Imola 1994 and they both would have left the sport and gone fishing?

I suspect that the accidents that Rubens and Wendlinger had, coupled to the accident that claimed Ratzenberger's life and the major accident Hakkinen had in 1995, probably would have still seen Mosely kick start his reforms to safety in the sport (Hartstein, the former medical director for F1, has indicated that Mosely was already putting pressure on the sport to move from a reactive to pre-emptive model when it came to safety matters and was resolved to start pushing through reforms after Ratzenberger's death).

Actually, on that point there is another disconcerting question - what might have happened if, at the 2008 Australian GP, one of the drivers involved in the multi car pile up on the opening lap required medical assistance? Hartstein had been replaced at that point and had no effective power, whilst his replacement had no experience whatsoever in motor sport and probably would not have known what to do in that situation.
[For those interested, I would strongly recommend watching this video by Hartstein on his time in F1 and the way in which Todt forced him out of the sport on what he feels were political and personal grounds - especially since he had dared to contradict what Todt said about Bahrain http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBXWbTuN ... r_embedded ].

[Shizuka]

And what if Honda decided not to develop a V12 engine in 1990/1991/1992, and stuck with their V10s? Would the Williams domination still have happened?

Let's make this question take a step further: what if Honda itself never entered F1 in the 1983-1992 timeframe?

[AndreaModa]

Brilliant video Mario thanks for posting that. Really interesting stuff about Todt, which confirms what I think about him really in the wake of the stuff that has happened this year.

[ibsey]

And what if Honda decided not to develop a V12 engine in 1990/1991/1992, and stuck with their V10s? Would the Williams domination still have happened?

Whilst I think Honda might have been more competitive with a V10 in 1991 & 1992, then perhaps a V12, based (amongst other things) on the below Wikipedia extract;

It was the first McLaren to be powered by a Honda V12 engine. The car was tested by Gerhard Berger in the off-season, but he was unimpressed with the new engine, feeling it was underpowered for what it was, especially compared to Honda's V10 engine in the previous year's car. When Ayrton Senna returned for pre-season testing, he knuckled down to try to solve the engine's problems. McLaren's domination in the early part of the year was mainly due to the lack of reliability of the Williams FW14.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLaren_MP4/6 (This story is also confirmed in the commentary on the FIA 1991 season review video about 4 minutes into the video).

So Mclaren Honda might have won both championships more convincingly in 1991. And for example not ran out of fuel at Silverstone 1991, 1992 & Hockenhiem 1991. And possibility put up more of a challenge to Williams Renault in 1992. Although I still think Williams would have won both championships in 1992.

IIRC, according to Mansell’s book, around 1991 & 1992 (up until the 1992 Portuguese GP) some of Renault’s engine superiority over its rivals, was down to the a special fuel developed by Elf (who as far as I am aware have always worked with Renault). I’m not sure if Honda & Shell have had a similar long standing association as Renault & Elf, and therefore able to compete with their special fuel mix? IIRC from the 1992 Portuguese GP the use of special fuel was banned, but by that time, Honda was only a few races from leaving F1, so presumably Honda were no longer developing their engine as much as they might otherwise have done.

If I may to save time I’ll just repeat what I said in a previous post of mine;

Also maybe Honda saw the increasing threat coming from Renault V10’s during 1990. And knew they wouldn't be able to compete directly with them. Especially since from my research I have seen it suggested that Honda never had the lightest V10 engines…

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6117 (see my post dated 10 May 2013, 01:26)

Williams also enjoyed things like an Adrian Newey designed car, fully developed active suspension & a year’s extra experience then Mclaren with the semi automatic transmission. So all in all, I believe the Williams domination would still have happened from 1992 onwards. Although admittedly perhaps to a lesser extent whilst Honda was still in F1 with a V10 design & fully committed. Maybe Honda might have stayed in F1 beyond 1992, had they stuck with the V10 design? As I previously stated within my last post in the New Centrale article: Porsche's Epic 1991 F1 Fail thread (referred to above), maybe once Honda realized they had made a bit of a mistake going down the V12 route for 1991, then they “made their decision (with or without McLaren’s immediate knowledge) early in 91 to withdraw from F1 at the conclusion of the 92 season”. Who knows?

[ibsey]

And what if Honda decided not to develop a V12 engine in 1990/1991/1992, and stuck with their V10s? Would the Williams domination still have happened?

Let's make this question take a step further: what if Honda itself never entered F1 in the 1983-1992 timeframe?

The opening song on the 1988 F1 season review video might have been different.

(the 1988 F1 season review was titled "Honda All Fired Up" & the song was "All Fired Up")

[David AGS]

Yes true Ibsey,

Re. Renault/Elf and Honda/Shell.

Didnt McLaren sign a deal to use Renault power in 1993, but Renault would only use Elf fuels/lubricants. But McLaren had a association with Shell, and would not break the contract so deal was off. The irony was that Shell and McLaren parted ways at the end of 1994.

Which leads to another 'what if'.

What if the McLaren MP4-18 was powered by Renault? Could Senna have won the championship. Would Andretti potentially do a lot better, could McLaren win the Constructors championship? would Senna have stayed?

Can go and on and on. Full apologies if mentioned before..!

[ibsey]

What if the McLaren MP4-18 was powered by Renault? Could Senna have won the championship.

No, I still feel Prost & Williams Renault would have proved too strong for Senna in a Mclaren Renault. But it would have been an extremely close fight.

Would Andretti potentially do a lot better,

I tend to think he would have been under even more pressure to perform, given a more competitive engine like the Renault. I don’t know Andretti well enough to say how me might have re-acted to this additional pressure. But my observation of him in F1 during 1993, was that his heart wasn’t really in F1.

could McLaren win the Constructors championship?

No.

would Senna have stayed?

No I still believe Senna would have gone to Williams in 1994. Partly because Williams would have still had been the best package of the field in 1993 (with Newey designed aero etc). And because Senna, having been with Mclaren for 6 years up until that point, probably fancy a change of team by then.

[Gerudo Dragon]

What If Mansell stayed with Ferrari for '91?

[Salamander]

What If Mansell stayed with Ferrari for '91?

Thierry Boutsen would be a world champion.

[mario]

What If Mansell stayed with Ferrari for '91?

Thierry Boutsen would be a world champion.

That is assuming that the driver who would have driven at Williams instead of Mansell would have been less competitive than Boutsen, which is not necessarily the case. We know that the Prost-Mansell line up at Ferrari was acrimonious, so that might suggest that Mansell would only have stayed on at Ferrari if Prost was no longer there - so that might have seen Prost, rather than Mansell, move to Williams in 1991 instead.

[Salamander]

What If Mansell stayed with Ferrari for '91?

Thierry Boutsen would be a world champion.

That is assuming that the driver who would have driven at Williams instead of Mansell would have been less competitive than Boutsen, which is not necessarily the case. We know that the Prost-Mansell line up at Ferrari was acrimonious, so that might suggest that Mansell would only have stayed on at Ferrari if Prost was no longer there - so that might have seen Prost, rather than Mansell, move to Williams in 1991 instead.

Yeah, I know, I just like the idea of Thierry Boutsen being world champion.

[ibsey]

Yeah, I know, I just like the idea of Thierry Boutsen being world champion.

On a simliar theme, wasn't Mark Blundell their test driver around 1991? Maybe he could have been promoted to a race seat & a WDC...

There was a great interview with Ant Davidson in this week’s Motorsport magazine, which got me wondering; what if Ant had actually finished the 2007 Canadian GP (apparently Davidson was running third when his car struck a groundhog on the straight before the pits). Might he have been promoted to a Honda race seat for 2008, potentially leading to greater things like a Brawn seat for 2009?

Since I’ve mentioned it, also from that same interview IIRC Ant came up with a great excuse why he spun out of Hungary & Spa in 2002. Basically he said that the Minardi’s power steering system had been originally designed for Bridgestone tyres (presumably from 2000 unless in 2001 it was a last minute call by Minardi to switch to Michelins). So when a certain amount steering lock was applied by the driver, the power system simply stopped working.

Ant goes on to say, that this wore him out, physically speaking. Hence why he spun off during his two Minardi outings in 2002. I wonder if this was also what Alex Yoong was referring too on the main site interview with him where Yoong says this about his time with Minardi in 2001 & 2002;

I was struggling for fitness on race weekends, trying to understand the car and how to get the best out of the new tyres.

http://www.f1rejects.com/interviews/yoong/index.html

[Wallio]

Yeah, I know, I just like the idea of Thierry Boutsen being world champion.

On a simliar theme, wasn't Mark Blundell their test driver around 1991? Maybe he could have been promoted to a race seat & a WDC...

There was a great interview with Ant Davidson in this week’s Motorsport magazine, which got me wondering; what if Ant had actually finished the 2007 Canadian GP (apparently Davidson was running third when his car struck a groundhog on the straight before the pits). Might he have been promoted to a Honda race seat for 2008, potentially leading to greater things like a Brawn seat for 2009?

Since I’ve mentioned it, also from that same interview IIRC Ant came up with a great excuse why he spun out of Hungary & Spa in 2002. Basically he said that the Minardi’s power steering system had been originally designed for Bridgestone tyres (presumably from 2000 unless in 2001 it was a last minute call by Minardi to switch to Michelins). So when a certain amount steering lock was applied by the driver, the power system simply stopped working.

Ant goes on to say, that this wore him out, physically speaking. Hence why he spun off during his two Minardi outings in 2002. I wonder if this was also what Alex Yoong was referring too on the main site interview with him where Yoong says this about his time with Minardi in 2001 & 2002;

I was struggling for fitness on race weekends, trying to understand the car and how to get the best out of the new tyres.

http://www.f1rejects.com/interviews/yoong/index.html

Call me dense, but why would you set the steering to do that? What effect on the different tyres would that have? It just sounds like a shite system to me.

[ibsey]

Call me dense, but why would you set the steering to do that?

I think perhaps the reason Minardi didn't ‘fix’ that power steering issue, was simply to save money & time. Maybe they just told the drivers to deal with it. IIRC Ant admitted in that same interview it was a mistake to drive for Minardi (with their 'dodgy' power steering) in 2002. Since he now recognises he wasn't ready or fit enough to have been able to deal with it. Again IIRC he even said before the race at Spa in 2002 he knew he wasn't going to last the race distance.

What effect on the different tyres would that have?

I’m guessing here, but maybe Michelin’s front tyres where slightly wider than Bridgestones. Or cambered at a slightly different angle, or ran a different tyre pressure / compound mixture. Which ultimately meant that, the Michelin front tyres required more steering wheel input or lock, than their Bridgestone equivalent.

[takagi_for_the_win]

What if Jordan had kept Alesi on for 2002?

[Alextrax52]

What if Jordan had kept Alesi on for 2002?

I don't think it would have made much difference. Alesi was past his prime and the 2002 Jordan was coupled with the underpowered and unreliable Honda engine only flattered by some very good efforts from Giancarlo Fisichella who drove his socks off all season while in the other car Takuma Sato was making a list of broken cars. I think Alesi retired at the right time because another year at Jordan wouldn't have been the right way to sign off his career

[takagi_for_the_win]

What if Jordan had kept Alesi on for 2002?

I don't think it would have made much difference. Alesi was past his prime and the 2002 Jordan was coupled with the underpowered and unreliable Honda engine only flattered by some very good efforts from Giancarlo Fisichella who drove his socks off all season while in the other car Takuma Sato was making a list of broken cars. I think Alesi retired at the right time because another year at Jordan wouldn't have been the right way to sign off his career

Yeah, but he wouldn't have given the team a Sato sized repair bill...

[good_Ralf]

What if Nick Heidfeld's crash in Brazil 2006 due to suspension failure brought out the Safety Car?
How much progress would Schumi have made from there?

[Bleu]

Considering there was only 7 laps to go when the accident happened, not much difference to what happened. Let's say the restart would have been on lap 68, which could have meant that he would have taken Räikkönen on that lap (in real life the overtaking took place on lap 69). I say he would have had chance on Button, but not on Alonso. You have to take account also lapped drivers. I am not sure what the situation was at that point, but the finishing order of the race was this:

Massa (winner)
Sato (-1 lap)
Monteiro (-2 laps)
Yamamoto (-2 laps)
Alonso
Button
Speed (-1 lap)
Schumacher
Doornbos (-1 lap)
Räikkönen
Fisichella
Liuzzi (-1 lap)
Barrichello
de la Rosa
Albers (-1 lap)
Kubica

[good_Ralf]

I'll do another one, but this time one from virtual reality.
What if this crash (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=KJMmacKsC60#t=5238s) happened in real life?

[Gerudo Dragon]

What if Robert Kubica died in his rally crash?
What if Tony Stewart stayed in IRL?

[Backmarker]

I'll do another one, but this time one from virtual reality.
What if this crash (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=KJMmacKsC60#t=5238s) happened in real life?

Presumably a real driver wouldn't have tried to rejoin the track with only 3 wheels?

[good_Ralf]

What if Robert Kubica died in his rally crash?

As someone had suggested previously on this thread, there would have been a state funeral in Poland for their first (surely not their last) race winner in F1.
Nick Heidfeld probably would have ended up at Renault as in reality, but the team as a whole would have deeply affected emotionally and probably wouldn't have threatened the podiums in the early races.
In fact, the possible loss of form might have even crawled into today's results at Lotus and Kimi probably would have returned to F1, but not with that team.

The list of possibilities goes on.

I've got a few more scenarios:

What if Fernando Alonso got injured in his crash in Brazil 2003 and was forced to sit out the next few races up to say, Monaco or Canada and therefore missing Spain ?
What if Lewis Hamilton debuted early for McLaren in late 2006 for the last few races?
What would Antonio Pizzonia have done if Jaguar kept him for the rest of 2003 as he was supposedly improving at the time of his sacking?

[Ataxia]

What if Robert Kubica died in his rally crash?

As someone had suggested previously on this thread, there would have been a state funeral in Poland for their first (surely not their last) race winner in F1.
Nick Heidfeld probably would have ended up at Renault as in reality, but the team as a whole would have deeply affected emotionally and probably wouldn't have threatened the podiums in the early races.
In fact, the possible loss of form might have even crawled into today's results at Lotus and Kimi probably would have returned to F1, but not with that team.

The list of possibilities goes on.

I've got a few more scenarios:

What if Fernando Alonso got injured in his crash in Brazil 2003 and was forced to sit out the next few races up to say, Monaco or Canada and therefore missing Spain ?
What if Lewis Hamilton debuted early for McLaren in late 2006 for the last few races?
What would Antonio Pizzonia have done if Jaguar kept him for the rest of 2003 as he was supposedly improving at the time of his sacking?

I doubt much would have changed, to be honest.

If Alonso had been injured, then I'd expect Franck Montagny to have covered the seat for a couple of races before handing it back. If Montagny had impressed, he might have set himself up for an '04 seat, but I doubt it.

If Hamilton had an early debut, he'd probably have had a much more inconspicuous start as McLaren was having a "lesser" year and would have left him free to learn the ropes without the pressure. Perhaps, he might have won in '07 outright due to having done his growing up beforehand.

As for Pizzonia, you'd think that he might've managed a few points. However, with Mateschitz getting his foot in the Jaguar door via Klien, I'd imagine that the Red Bull money would have ousted Pizzonia from the seat anyway. So, the status quo would more than likely remain here...except F1's most anonymous man Nicolas Kiesa wouldn't have made his debut.

[Hound55]

So, let's play with the engine regulations, shall we?

The engine manufacturers have a spending cap. Nothing else. Boost is an option. Any number of cylinders is an option. So what do most of them make? What is the fastest? The most reliable? How do the cars change to adapt to these engines (we can assume that proper accommodations are made to the regulations that allow for these changes)?

[TomWazzleshaw]

What if Mark Webber managed to haul that Jag kicking and screaming all the way to pole position at the 2003 Brazilian Grand Prix?

[mario]

So, let's play with the engine regulations, shall we?

The engine manufacturers have a spending cap. Nothing else. Boost is an option. Any number of cylinders is an option. So what do most of them make? What is the fastest? The most reliable? How do the cars change to adapt to these engines (we can assume that proper accommodations are made to the regulations that allow for these changes)?

It's a very open ended question, but I guess that we can make a few educated guesses.

My gut feeling is that most, if not all, of the engine manufacturers would have a turbocharged engine (forced induction is almost a given, and turbocharging would probably be one of the more practical and reliable methods of doing that), although the expected lifespan of those engines would have a major say in capacity and rev limits.

If the regulations dictated long lives for the engines and the regulations outlawed mid race refuelling, then we'd probably see something similar to the Group C sports cars, which were medium to large capacity engines with moderate boost pressures and relatively low rev limits to minimise frictional losses and reduce the stresses on the components. Frictional losses would probably also push the designers towards a lower cylinder count - you'd probably see 6-8 cylinder designs, with perhaps the former being favoured as it could be slightly more compact.
It would also likely be cheaper to go for that option rather than going for a small capacity, high revving turbo engines given that would probably push you towards the use of more exotic materials and coatings in order to make the engine competitive, which would in turn eat into the budget more quickly.

[good_Ralf]

What if Mark Webber managed to haul that Jag kicking and screaming all the way to pole position at the 2003 Brazilian Grand Prix?

He would have had the glory of leading the start under the SC but he probably would have slid down the order anyway, like he did in reality. He might still have crashed as well, but most likely in a place other than the pit straight.

[Onxy Wrecked]

I've got a few more scenarios:

What if Fernando Alonso got injured in his crash in Brazil 2003 and was forced to sit out the next few races up to say, Monaco or Canada and therefore missing Spain ?
What if Lewis Hamilton debuted early for McLaren in late 2006 for the last few races?
What would Antonio Pizzonia have done if Jaguar kept him for the rest of 2003 as he was supposedly improving at the time of his sacking?

Just a few races for Franck Montagny that might have led to either a IndyCar ride or a back marker ride in F1 for 2004, but nothing crazy should have been expected.
I don't know too much about what would have changed if Hamilton debuted early other than Juan Pablo Montoya probably got a few more mediocre ARCA, NASCAR Nationwide, and even Sprint Cup starts added to his total which would have made Juan's first two full time NASCAR efforts a bit stronger and maybe a win or two more however the Ganassi cars have been erratic in quality from year to year with even numbered years being far weaker than odd years which might have favored Juan a bit better in 2007.
Pizzonia was doomed to follow the path of Johnny Dumfries as a Damn You Lucky Bastard with a few points finishes or maybe even a lone 3rd place if the car held up. He didn't bring enough money to the table nor enough talent to keep himself around and returns to Brazil by 2004.

[good_Ralf]

What if somehow, Juan Pablo Montoya survived 2006 at McLaren and got signed by Red Bull for 2007, given the rumours about the move?

[CoopsII]

What if somehow, Juan Pablo Montoya survived 2006 at McLaren and got signed by Red Bull for 2007, given the rumours about the move?

I reckon he could possibly have won a race actually before he was inevitably replaced by Vettel in 2009. Then perhaps Williams would've taken him back.

[TomWazzleshaw]

Forgive me if this one's already been asked but what if Fernando Alonso went to Red Bull at the end of 2007, rather than go back to Renault?

[good_Ralf]

Forgive me if this one's already been asked but what if Fernando Alonso went to Red Bull at the end of 2007, rather than go back to Renault?

Podiums would have been certain up to Germany in 2008 (how ironic was it that Red Bull lost form almost immediately after Enoch and Jamie said " there is no sign that Red Bull's pace or reliability is about to wane") but points would have been more difficult toward the end of the year as the excellent RB4 slid down the order. Of course Alonso's move means that one of the Red Bull drivers would have ended up at Renault, possibly Coulthard as he was at Red Bull for longer than Webber. Alonso would have been closer to the title than Vettel in 2009, to be honest, but I'm not sure if it would have been a certainty. Then of course, you also have to consider Vettel's introduction into F1 and from there I think it gets too complicated.

I think with Alonso's move, Webber and Kovalainen would have been the most likely candidates for the McLaren seat, but neither would have threatened Hamilton.

Not forgetting what would have happened to Nelsinho...

[Londoner]

How long might have Jacques Laffite's career have continued for if he hadn't had his legs smashed in the pile up at Brands Hatch in 1986?

[Onxy Wrecked]

What if somehow, Juan Pablo Montoya survived 2006 at McLaren and got signed by Red Bull for 2007, given the rumours about the move?

His career came to an end with a NASCAR contract first on July 9 with McLaren ending the F1 contract two days later. So this would have been more of a what if Juan Pablo Montoya didn't sign with Chip Ganassi Racing in NASCAR for 2007.

[RonDenisDeletraz]

How long might have Jacques Laffite's career have continued for if he hadn't had his legs smashed in the pile up at Brands Hatch in 1986?

Wasn't he like 42 at the time? I think he would have likely retired at the end of 1986 after the Ligier fell off the pace mid season.

[Alextrax52]

What if Gilles Villeneuve hadn't died at Belgium 1982?
What if Rene Arnoux kept his mouth shut about the Alfa Romeo engines in 1987?

[mario]

How long might have Jacques Laffite's career have continued for if he hadn't had his legs smashed in the pile up at Brands Hatch in 1986?

Wasn't he like 42 at the time? I think he would have likely retired at the end of 1986 after the Ligier fell off the pace mid season.

He was nearly 43 years old at the time (the crash happened about four months before his 43rd birthday), so I do agree that it is unlikely he'd have continued for much longer in F1 anyway. Given that the dip in form of Ligier that season was, I believe, partially linked to Laffite's accident (I think that the team looked to him a little more than Arnoux for advice on car development), perhaps the team might not have slipped quite so much in terms of performance in the tail end of the year, although it is still plausible that Laffite might have chosen that as a good moment to retire from the sport on a relative high.

What if Gilles Villeneuve hadn't died at Belgium 1982?
What if Rene Arnoux kept his mouth shut about the Alfa Romeo engines in 1987?

On the former point, I might be mistaken but believe that another poster mentioned that Gilles might have been in negotiations with McLaren at the time, so in the longer term he might have moved there (especially after his relations with Pironi soured).
In the shorter term, reliability permitting he probably would have been in contention for the title in 1982, although the after effects of the dispute in Imola that caused his rift with Pironi probably would have held both drivers back in their bid for the title. Had he stayed on at Ferrari for 1983, he probably would have again been in the title fight that year - Arnoux came close with the 126C3 and Tambay was not far behind him in the points either - although reliability might have again held him back too.

As for Arnoux and the Alfa Romeo engines, I believe that, even if he had kept his mouth shut, the situation wouldn't have been that much better for the team. Whilst it is true that the car wouldn't have had to have been hastily redesigned to use the M12 engine, the 415T didn't look like a significantly better engine in terms of performance. Moreover, there is an indication that Ligier might have had to use Alfa's 890T as a stop gap until the 415T was ready, and that engine had already proven to be pretty uncompetitive in the works Alfa team several years earlier.

Finally, there is the fact that Fiat was not keen on seeing Alfa Romeo compete directly against Ferrari in F1 - asides from the marketing aspect, there was the fact that it made little financial sense to have two separate F1 programs within the same company, especially since the Alfa Romeo program was significantly less successful than Ferrari's program. Even if Arnoux hadn't complained about the engine, I guess that, as the engine and Ligier's chassis were both unlikely to have been that much more successful even if the split hadn't occurred, Fiat would probably have cut their losses at the end of 1987 anyway.

[good_Ralf]

What if Gilles Villeneuve hadn't died at Belgium 1982?

I'm not sure about what Villeneuve could have done had he survived in 1982, given that Imola marked only his first finish in the points that year.
However, if the Ferrari stayed reliable, Villeneuve, with consistency, would have been a contender, especially if Pironi still had his Hockenheim smash.
In 1983, Villeneuve would probably have stayed at Ferrari with Pironi gone and would have been partnered by Tambay and might have had a stronger bid for the title. 1984-6 were difficult times for Ferrari and only in 1985 would Gilles have had a chance of title glory.

It's hard to see Villeneuve leaving Ferrari, but if he were to for some reason e.g. Pironi not colliding with Prost at Hockenheim and staying at the team, I would imagine Villeneuve ending up at McLaren, although he wouldn't be as good at setting up the car as Watson, Lauda or Prost and the team might not have understood his demands. If he joined in 1983, titles would have been possible from 1984-6.

If Gilles ended up at Lotus, he might have won in 1984 and certainly after that, but if Senna still joined the team, the Canadian might well have found himself beaten by the Brazilian.

The scenarios go on and on...